Inside Elections

Forecaster quality, broken out by office and by cycle. Scored on the Brier score of its final pre-election win probability (lower is better), over 401 races, 2016–2024.

Overall Brier

0.083

Races scored

401

Head-to-head vs the VotePredictor model

Apples-to-apples: on the 401 races Inside Elections forecast, its win-probability Brier vs VotePredictor's calibrated win-prob on those same races.

Model	Brier	Called right
Inside Elections	0.083	88%
VotePredictor	0.070	90%

Every race (401)

Each race Inside Elections scored, with its final pre-election call vs who actually won, and the Brier score for that call. Click a race for its full detail.

Race	Their call	Winner	Brier	Called
2024 AK-1 House	Rep 60%	Rep	0.160	✓
2024 AL-2 House	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2024 CA-22 House	Even	Rep	0.250	—
2024 CA-47 House	Even	Dem	0.250	—
2024 CA-49 House	Dem 75%	Dem	0.062	✓
2024 CA-51 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 CO-8 House	Even	Rep	0.250	—
2024 CT-5 House	Dem 75%	Dem	0.062	✓
2024 FL-13 House	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2024 FL-4 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 GA-2 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 IA-1 House	Dem 60%	Rep	0.360	✗
2024 IA-2 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 IA-3 House	Rep 60%	Rep	0.160	✓
2024 IA-4 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 IL-17 House	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2024 ME-1 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 ME-2 House	Even	Dem	0.250	—
2024 MI-10 House	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2024 MI-7 House	Rep 60%	Rep	0.160	✓
2024 MT-1 House	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2024 NE-1 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 NE-2 House	Dem 60%	Rep	0.360	✗
2024 NE-3 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 NH-1 House	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2024 NH-2 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 NY-1 House	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2024 NY-17 House	Rep 60%	Rep	0.160	✓
2024 NY-18 House	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2024 NY-22 House	Dem 75%	Dem	0.062	✓
2024 NY-3 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 NY-4 House	Dem 60%	Dem	0.160	✓
2024 OH-13 House	Dem 60%	Dem	0.160	✓
2024 PA-8 House	Dem 60%	Rep	0.360	✗
2024 SD-1 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 VA-2 House	Rep 60%	Rep	0.160	✓
2024 VA-7 House	Dem 60%	Dem	0.160	✓
2024 VT-1 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 AK President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 AZ President	Even	Rep	0.250	—
2024 CA President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 CO President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 FL President	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2024 GA President	Even	Rep	0.250	—
2024 IA President	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2024 MA President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 MD President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 ME President	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2024 ME-1 President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 ME-2 President	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2024 MI President	Dem 60%	Rep	0.360	✗
2024 MN President	Dem 75%	Dem	0.062	✓
2024 MO President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 MT President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 NC President	Rep 60%	Rep	0.160	✓
2024 NE President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 NE-1 President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 NE-2 President	Dem 75%	Dem	0.062	✓
2024 NE-3 President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 NH President	Dem 75%	Dem	0.062	✓
2024 NJ President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 NM President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 NV President	Even	Rep	0.250	—
2024 NY President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 OH President	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2024 OK President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 OR President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 PA President	Even	Rep	0.250	—
2024 RI President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 SC President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 SD President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 TX President	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2024 UT President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 VA President	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2024 VT President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 WA President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 WI President	Even	Rep	0.250	—
2024 WY President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 AZ Senate	Dem 75%	Dem	0.062	✓
2024 CA Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 FL Senate	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2024 MA Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 MD Senate	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2024 ME Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 MI Senate	Dem 60%	Dem	0.160	✓
2024 MN Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 MO Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 MT Senate	Rep 60%	Rep	0.160	✓
2024 NE Senate	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2024 NJ Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 NM Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 NV Senate	Dem 75%	Dem	0.062	✓
2024 NY Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 OH Senate	Even	Rep	0.250	—
2024 PA Senate	Dem 60%	Rep	0.360	✗
2024 RI Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 TX Senate	Rep 60%	Rep	0.160	✓
2024 UT Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 VA Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 VT Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 WA Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 WI Senate	Dem 60%	Dem	0.160	✓
2024 WY Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 AK-1 House	Dem 75%	Dem	0.062	✓
2022 CA-21 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 CA-26 House	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2022 CA-27 House	Rep 60%	Rep	0.160	✓
2022 CA-41 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 CA-49 House	Dem 60%	Dem	0.160	✓
2022 CO-3 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 CO-8 House	Rep 60%	Dem	0.360	✗
2022 CT-2 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 CT-4 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 CT-5 House	Even	Dem	0.250	—
2022 DE-1 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 FL-1 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 FL-13 House	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2022 FL-15 House	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2022 FL-2 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 FL-27 House	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2022 FL-28 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 FL-4 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 GA-2 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 IA-3 House	Rep 60%	Rep	0.160	✓
2022 IL-10 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 IL-17 House	Even	Dem	0.250	—
2022 KS-2 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 KS-3 House	Dem 60%	Dem	0.160	✓
2022 MD-1 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 MD-2 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 MD-6 House	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2022 ME-1 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 ME-2 House	Dem 60%	Dem	0.160	✓
2022 MI-10 House	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2022 MI-7 House	Dem 60%	Dem	0.160	✓
2022 MI-8 House	Dem 75%	Dem	0.062	✓
2022 MN-1 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 MN-2 House	Even	Dem	0.250	—
2022 MT-1 House	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2022 MT-2 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 NC-1 House	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2022 NC-13 House	Even	Dem	0.250	—
2022 ND-1 House	Rep 99%	Dem	0.980	✗
2022 NH-1 House	Dem 60%	Dem	0.160	✓
2022 NH-2 House	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2022 NJ-7 House	Rep 60%	Rep	0.160	✓
2022 NM-1 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 NM-2 House	Even	Dem	0.250	—
2022 NM-3 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 NV-1 House	Dem 60%	Dem	0.160	✓
2022 NV-2 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 NV-3 House	Dem 60%	Dem	0.160	✓
2022 NV-4 House	Dem 75%	Dem	0.062	✓
2022 NY-11 House	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2022 NY-17 House	Even	Dem	0.250	—
2022 NY-19 House	Even	Dem	0.250	—
2022 NY-22 House	Even	Dem	0.250	—
2022 NY-25 House	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2022 OH-1 House	Even	Dem	0.250	—
2022 OH-13 House	Even	Dem	0.250	—
2022 OR-4 House	Dem 60%	Dem	0.160	✓
2022 OR-6 House	Even	Dem	0.250	—
2022 PA-12 House	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2022 PA-17 House	Even	Dem	0.250	—
2022 PA-7 House	Even	Dem	0.250	—
2022 PA-8 House	Even	Dem	0.250	—
2022 RI-2 House	Even	Dem	0.250	—
2022 SD-1 House	Rep 99%	Dem	0.980	✗
2022 TX-15 House	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2022 VA-10 House	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2022 VA-2 House	Rep 60%	Rep	0.160	✓
2022 VA-7 House	Dem 60%	Dem	0.160	✓
2022 VT-1 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 WA-3 House	Rep 75%	Dem	0.562	✗
2022 WY-1 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 AK Senate	Rep 99%	Dem	0.980	✗
2022 AL Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 AR Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 AZ Senate	Dem 60%	Dem	0.160	✓
2022 CA Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 CO Senate	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2022 CT Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 FL Senate	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2022 GA Senate	Even	Dem	0.250	—
2022 IA Senate	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2022 IL Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 IN Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 KS Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 MD Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 MO Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 NC Senate	Rep 60%	Rep	0.160	✓
2022 NH Senate	Dem 60%	Dem	0.160	✓
2022 NV Senate	Even	Dem	0.250	—
2022 NY Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 OH Senate	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2022 OK Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 OR Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 PA Senate	Even	Dem	0.250	—
2022 SD Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 UT Senate	Rep 90%	Dem	0.810	✗
2022 VT Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 WA Senate	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2022 WI Senate	Rep 60%	Rep	0.160	✓
2020 AK President	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2020 AL President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 AR President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 AZ President	Dem 60%	Dem	0.160	✓
2020 CA President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 CO President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 CT President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 DC President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 DE President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 FL President	Dem 60%	Rep	0.360	✗
2020 GA President	Dem 60%	Dem	0.160	✓
2020 HI President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 IA President	Even	Rep	0.250	—
2020 ID President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 IL President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 IN President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 KS President	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2020 KY President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 LA President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 MA President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 MD President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 ME President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 MI President	Dem 75%	Dem	0.062	✓
2020 MN President	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2020 MO President	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2020 MS President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 MT President	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2020 NC President	Dem 60%	Rep	0.360	✗
2020 ND President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 NE President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 NH President	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2020 NJ President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 NM President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 NV President	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2020 NY President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 OH President	Even	Rep	0.250	—
2020 OK President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 OR President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 PA President	Dem 75%	Dem	0.062	✓
2020 RI President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 SC President	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2020 SD President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 TN President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 TX President	Even	Rep	0.250	—
2020 UT President	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2020 VA President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 VT President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 WA President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 WI President	Dem 75%	Dem	0.062	✓
2020 WV President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 WY President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 AK Senate	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2020 AL Senate	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2020 AR Senate	Rep 99%	Dem	0.980	✗
2020 CO Senate	Dem 75%	Dem	0.062	✓
2020 DE Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 GA Senate	Even	Dem	0.250	—
2020 IA Senate	Even	Rep	0.250	—
2020 IL Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 KS Senate	Rep 60%	Rep	0.160	✓
2020 KY Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 MA Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 ME Senate	Dem 60%	Rep	0.360	✗
2020 MI Senate	Dem 75%	Dem	0.062	✓
2020 MN Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 MS Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 MT Senate	Even	Rep	0.250	—
2020 NC Senate	Dem 60%	Rep	0.360	✗
2020 NE Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 NH Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 NJ Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 NM Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 OK Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 OR Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 SC Senate	Rep 60%	Rep	0.160	✓
2020 SD Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 TN Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 TX Senate	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2020 VA Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 WV Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 WY Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2018 AZ Senate	Dem 60%	Dem	0.160	✓
2018 CA Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 CT Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 DE Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 FL Senate	Dem 60%	Rep	0.360	✗
2018 IN Senate	Even	Rep	0.250	—
2018 MA Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 MD Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 ME Senate	Dem 99%	Rep	0.980	✗
2018 MI Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 MN Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 MO Senate	Rep 60%	Rep	0.160	✓
2018 MS Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2018 MT Senate	Dem 60%	Dem	0.160	✓
2018 ND Senate	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2018 NE Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2018 NJ Senate	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2018 NM Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 NV Senate	Rep 60%	Dem	0.360	✗
2018 NY Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 OH Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 PA Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 RI Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 TN Senate	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2018 TX Senate	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2018 UT Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2018 VA Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 VT Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 WA Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 WI Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 WV Senate	Dem 60%	Dem	0.160	✓
2018 WY Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 AK President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 AL President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 AR President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 AZ President	Rep 60%	Rep	0.160	✓
2016 CA President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 CO President	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2016 CT President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 DC President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 DE President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 FL President	Dem 60%	Rep	0.360	✗
2016 GA President	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2016 HI President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 IA President	Even	Rep	0.250	—
2016 ID President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 IL President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 IN President	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2016 KS President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 KY President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 LA President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 MA President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 MD President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 ME President	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2016 MI President	Dem 75%	Rep	0.562	✗
2016 MN President	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2016 MO President	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2016 MS President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 MT President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 NC President	Dem 60%	Rep	0.360	✗
2016 ND President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 NE President	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2016 NH President	Dem 75%	Dem	0.062	✓
2016 NJ President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 NM President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 NV President	Dem 60%	Dem	0.160	✓
2016 NY President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 OH President	Even	Rep	0.250	—
2016 OK President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 OR President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 PA President	Dem 75%	Rep	0.562	✗
2016 RI President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 SC President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 SD President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 TN President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 TX President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 UT President	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2016 VA President	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2016 VT President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 WA President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 WI President	Dem 60%	Rep	0.360	✗
2016 WV President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 WY President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 AK Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 AL Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 AR Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 AZ Senate	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2016 CA Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 CO Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 CT Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 FL Senate	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2016 GA Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 HI Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 IA Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 ID Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 IL Senate	Dem 75%	Dem	0.062	✓
2016 IN Senate	Even	Rep	0.250	—
2016 KS Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 KY Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 LA Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 MD Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 MO Senate	Even	Rep	0.250	—
2016 NC Senate	Even	Rep	0.250	—
2016 ND Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 NH Senate	Even	Dem	0.250	—
2016 NV Senate	Even	Dem	0.250	—
2016 NY Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 OH Senate	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2016 OK Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 OR Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 PA Senate	Even	Rep	0.250	—
2016 SC Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 SD Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 UT Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 VT Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 WA Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 WI Senate	Dem 60%	Rep	0.360	✗

By office

Office	Races	Brier	Called right
House	110	0.118	92%
Senate	149	0.084	93%

By cycle

Year	Races	Brier	Called right
2016	85	0.063	92%
2018	32	0.086	90%
2020	81	0.066	93%
2022	100	0.125	93%
2024	103	0.071	95%

Why no “time to election” curve? Unlike pollsters — where we have every poll with its field dates — our forecaster archive (JHK Forecasts) stores only each outfit's final pre-election forecast per race, not its earlier snapshots. So a lead-time breakdown genuinely isn't in the data for forecasters. Pollster pages do show it (e.g. the leaderboard).