DDHQ/Decision Desk

Forecaster quality, broken out by office and by cycle. Scored on the Brier score of its final pre-election win probability (lower is better), over 542 races, 2016–2024.

Overall Brier

0.104

Races scored

542

Head-to-head vs the VotePredictor model

Apples-to-apples: on the 542 races DDHQ/Decision Desk forecast, its win-probability Brier vs VotePredictor's calibrated win-prob on those same races.

Model	Brier	Called right
DDHQ/Decision Desk	0.104	87%
VotePredictor	0.096	86%

Every race (542)

Each race DDHQ/Decision Desk scored, with its final pre-election call vs who actually won, and the Brier score for that call. Click a race for its full detail.

Race	Their call	Winner	Brier	Called
2024 AK-1 House	Rep 63%	Rep	0.137	✓
2024 AL-2 House	Dem 78%	Dem	0.048	✓
2024 CA-22 House	Dem 60%	Rep	0.360	✗
2024 CA-47 House	Dem 51%	Dem	0.245	✓
2024 CA-49 House	Dem 89%	Dem	0.012	✓
2024 CA-51 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 CO-8 House	Dem 71%	Rep	0.504	✗
2024 CT-5 House	Dem 76%	Dem	0.058	✓
2024 FL-13 House	Rep 76%	Rep	0.058	✓
2024 FL-4 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 GA-2 House	Dem 85%	Dem	0.023	✓
2024 IA-1 House	Rep 86%	Rep	0.020	✓
2024 IA-2 House	Rep 98%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 IA-3 House	Rep 53%	Rep	0.221	✓
2024 IA-4 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 IL-17 House	Dem 89%	Dem	0.012	✓
2024 ME-1 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 ME-2 House	Dem 72%	Dem	0.078	✓
2024 MI-10 House	Rep 57%	Rep	0.185	✓
2024 MI-7 House	Rep 63%	Rep	0.137	✓
2024 MT-1 House	Rep 83%	Rep	0.029	✓
2024 NE-1 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 NE-2 House	Dem 68%	Rep	0.462	✗
2024 NE-3 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 NH-1 House	Dem 97%	Dem	0.001	✓
2024 NH-2 House	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 NY-1 House	Rep 79%	Rep	0.044	✓
2024 NY-17 House	Rep 59%	Rep	0.168	✓
2024 NY-18 House	Dem 89%	Dem	0.012	✓
2024 NY-22 House	Dem 61%	Dem	0.152	✓
2024 NY-3 House	Dem 89%	Dem	0.012	✓
2024 NY-4 House	Dem 75%	Dem	0.062	✓
2024 OH-13 House	Dem 85%	Dem	0.023	✓
2024 PA-8 House	Dem 66%	Rep	0.436	✗
2024 SD-1 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 VA-2 House	Rep 66%	Rep	0.116	✓
2024 VA-7 House	Dem 82%	Dem	0.032	✓
2024 VT-1 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 AK President	Rep 95%	Rep	0.003	✓
2024 AZ President	Rep 64%	Rep	0.130	✓
2024 CA President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 CO President	Dem 93%	Dem	0.005	✓
2024 FL President	Rep 83%	Rep	0.029	✓
2024 GA President	Rep 63%	Rep	0.137	✓
2024 IA President	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2024 MA President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 MD President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 ME President	Dem 95%	Dem	0.003	✓
2024 ME-1 President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 ME-2 President	Rep 87%	Rep	0.017	✓
2024 MI President	Dem 57%	Rep	0.325	✗
2024 MN President	Dem 76%	Dem	0.058	✓
2024 MO President	Rep 98%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 MT President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 NC President	Rep 64%	Rep	0.130	✓
2024 NE President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 NE-1 President	Rep 98%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 NE-2 President	Dem 82%	Dem	0.032	✓
2024 NE-3 President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 NH President	Dem 91%	Dem	0.008	✓
2024 NJ President	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 NM President	Dem 84%	Dem	0.026	✓
2024 NV President	Rep 57%	Rep	0.185	✓
2024 NY President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 OH President	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2024 OK President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 OR President	Dem 96%	Dem	0.002	✓
2024 PA President	Rep 54%	Rep	0.212	✓
2024 RI President	Dem 97%	Dem	0.001	✓
2024 SC President	Rep 97%	Rep	0.001	✓
2024 SD President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 TX President	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2024 UT President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 VA President	Dem 81%	Dem	0.036	✓
2024 VT President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 WA President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 WI President	Rep 51%	Rep	0.240	✓
2024 WY President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 AZ Senate	Dem 73%	Dem	0.073	✓
2024 CA Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 FL Senate	Rep 78%	Rep	0.048	✓
2024 MA Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 MD Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 ME Senate	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 MI Senate	Dem 66%	Dem	0.116	✓
2024 MN Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 MO Senate	Rep 91%	Rep	0.008	✓
2024 MT Senate	Rep 83%	Rep	0.029	✓
2024 NE Senate	Rep 81%	Rep	0.036	✓
2024 NJ Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 NM Senate	Dem 88%	Dem	0.014	✓
2024 NV Senate	Dem 72%	Dem	0.078	✓
2024 NY Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 OH Senate	Rep 61%	Rep	0.152	✓
2024 PA Senate	Dem 66%	Rep	0.436	✗
2024 RI Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 TX Senate	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2024 UT Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 VA Senate	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2024 VT Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 WA Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 WI Senate	Dem 76%	Dem	0.058	✓
2024 WY Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 AK-1 House	Dem 65%	Dem	0.121	✓
2022 CA-21 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 CA-26 House	Dem 93%	Dem	0.004	✓
2022 CA-27 House	Rep 58%	Rep	0.175	✓
2022 CA-41 House	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2022 CA-49 House	Dem 82%	Dem	0.033	✓
2022 CO-3 House	Rep 96%	Rep	0.001	✓
2022 CO-8 House	Rep 69%	Dem	0.470	✗
2022 CT-2 House	Dem 92%	Dem	0.006	✓
2022 CT-4 House	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 CT-5 House	Dem 75%	Dem	0.062	✓
2022 DE-1 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 FL-1 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 FL-13 House	Rep 93%	Rep	0.005	✓
2022 FL-15 House	Rep 78%	Rep	0.050	✓
2022 FL-2 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 FL-27 House	Rep 95%	Rep	0.002	✓
2022 FL-28 House	Rep 98%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 FL-4 House	Rep 96%	Rep	0.001	✓
2022 GA-2 House	Dem 81%	Dem	0.036	✓
2022 IA-3 House	Rep 64%	Rep	0.127	✓
2022 IL-10 House	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 IL-17 House	Rep 72%	Dem	0.514	✗
2022 KS-2 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 KS-3 House	Dem 87%	Dem	0.018	✓
2022 MD-1 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 MD-2 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 MD-6 House	Dem 89%	Dem	0.011	✓
2022 ME-1 House	Dem 98%	Dem	0.001	✓
2022 ME-2 House	Rep 74%	Dem	0.551	✗
2022 MI-10 House	Rep 75%	Rep	0.063	✓
2022 MI-7 House	Dem 60%	Dem	0.164	✓
2022 MI-8 House	Rep 59%	Dem	0.343	✗
2022 MN-1 House	Rep 98%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 MN-2 House	Dem 71%	Dem	0.082	✓
2022 MT-1 House	Rep 94%	Rep	0.004	✓
2022 MT-2 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 NC-1 House	Dem 69%	Dem	0.094	✓
2022 NC-13 House	Rep 81%	Dem	0.650	✗
2022 ND-1 House	Rep 100%	Dem	1.000	✗
2022 NH-1 House	Rep 56%	Dem	0.312	✗
2022 NH-2 House	Dem 85%	Dem	0.021	✓
2022 NJ-7 House	Dem 59%	Rep	0.348	✗
2022 NM-1 House	Dem 90%	Dem	0.011	✓
2022 NM-2 House	Rep 83%	Dem	0.685	✗
2022 NM-3 House	Dem 93%	Dem	0.006	✓
2022 NV-1 House	Dem 59%	Dem	0.168	✓
2022 NV-2 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 NV-3 House	Dem 64%	Dem	0.129	✓
2022 NV-4 House	Dem 77%	Dem	0.053	✓
2022 NY-11 House	Rep 92%	Rep	0.006	✓
2022 NY-17 House	Dem 88%	Dem	0.015	✓
2022 NY-19 House	Rep 54%	Dem	0.292	✗
2022 NY-22 House	Dem 50%	Dem	0.246	✓
2022 NY-25 House	Dem 97%	Dem	0.001	✓
2022 OH-1 House	Rep 61%	Dem	0.371	✗
2022 OH-13 House	Rep 80%	Dem	0.641	✗
2022 OR-4 House	Rep 52%	Dem	0.266	✗
2022 OR-6 House	Dem 61%	Dem	0.153	✓
2022 PA-12 House	Dem 93%	Dem	0.005	✓
2022 PA-17 House	Rep 66%	Dem	0.436	✗
2022 PA-7 House	Rep 55%	Dem	0.301	✗
2022 PA-8 House	Dem 57%	Dem	0.184	✓
2022 RI-2 House	Dem 58%	Dem	0.179	✓
2022 SD-1 House	Rep 100%	Dem	1.000	✗
2022 TX-15 House	Rep 74%	Rep	0.069	✓
2022 VA-10 House	Dem 91%	Dem	0.008	✓
2022 VA-2 House	Dem 59%	Rep	0.343	✗
2022 VA-7 House	Dem 76%	Dem	0.060	✓
2022 VT-1 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 WA-3 House	Rep 91%	Dem	0.828	✗
2022 WY-1 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 AK Senate	Rep 100%	Dem	0.996	✗
2022 AL Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 AR Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 AZ Senate	Dem 64%	Dem	0.134	✓
2022 CA Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 CO Senate	Dem 81%	Dem	0.037	✓
2022 CT Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 FL Senate	Rep 91%	Rep	0.007	✓
2022 GA Senate	Dem 52%	Dem	0.229	✓
2022 IA Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 IL Senate	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 IN Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 KS Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 MD Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 MO Senate	Rep 98%	Rep	0.001	✓
2022 NC Senate	Rep 77%	Rep	0.052	✓
2022 NH Senate	Dem 67%	Dem	0.111	✓
2022 NV Senate	Rep 56%	Dem	0.317	✗
2022 NY Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 OH Senate	Rep 86%	Rep	0.019	✓
2022 OK Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 OR Senate	Dem 97%	Dem	0.001	✓
2022 PA Senate	Rep 62%	Dem	0.381	✗
2022 SD Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 UT Senate	Rep 100%	Dem	0.997	✗
2022 VT Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 WA Senate	Dem 91%	Dem	0.009	✓
2022 WI Senate	Rep 91%	Rep	0.008	✓
2020 AK-1 House	Rep 70%	Rep	0.091	✓
2020 AR-2 House	Rep 57%	Rep	0.187	✓
2020 AZ-6 House	Dem 60%	Rep	0.356	✗
2020 CA-1 House	Rep 75%	Rep	0.061	✓
2020 CA-21 House	Dem 65%	Rep	0.428	✗
2020 CA-22 House	Rep 86%	Rep	0.018	✓
2020 CA-25 House	Dem 70%	Rep	0.494	✗
2020 CA-39 House	Rep 51%	Rep	0.244	✓
2020 CA-4 House	Rep 81%	Rep	0.037	✓
2020 CA-49 House	Dem 91%	Dem	0.009	✓
2020 CA-50 House	Rep 80%	Rep	0.039	✓
2020 CA-53 House	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 CO-3 House	Dem 53%	Rep	0.278	✗
2020 DE-1 House	Dem 97%	Dem	0.001	✓
2020 FL-13 House	Dem 87%	Dem	0.017	✓
2020 FL-15 House	Rep 66%	Rep	0.118	✓
2020 FL-16 House	Rep 83%	Rep	0.031	✓
2020 FL-18 House	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2020 FL-21 House	Dem 94%	Dem	0.004	✓
2020 FL-27 House	Dem 75%	Rep	0.569	✗
2020 FL-4 House	Rep 96%	Rep	0.002	✓
2020 IA-1 House	Dem 71%	Rep	0.503	✗
2020 IA-2 House	Dem 83%	Rep	0.690	✗
2020 IA-3 House	Dem 81%	Dem	0.037	✓
2020 IA-4 House	Rep 81%	Rep	0.037	✓
2020 IL-13 House	Dem 55%	Rep	0.307	✗
2020 IL-17 House	Dem 79%	Dem	0.044	✓
2020 IL-3 House	Dem 92%	Dem	0.007	✓
2020 IL-6 House	Dem 67%	Dem	0.106	✓
2020 IN-5 House	Rep 56%	Rep	0.197	✓
2020 KS-1 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 KS-2 House	Rep 88%	Rep	0.014	✓
2020 KS-3 House	Dem 82%	Dem	0.032	✓
2020 KS-4 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 ME-1 House	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 ME-2 House	Dem 86%	Dem	0.019	✓
2020 MI-3 House	Rep 52%	Rep	0.229	✓
2020 MN-1 House	Rep 53%	Rep	0.224	✓
2020 MN-2 House	Dem 81%	Dem	0.035	✓
2020 MO-2 House	Rep 62%	Rep	0.144	✓
2020 MT-1 House	Rep 61%	Rep	0.151	✓
2020 NC-11 House	Rep 58%	Rep	0.173	✓
2020 NC-8 House	Rep 61%	Rep	0.155	✓
2020 NC-9 House	Rep 77%	Rep	0.053	✓
2020 NE-2 House	Rep 54%	Rep	0.215	✓
2020 NH-1 House	Dem 66%	Dem	0.116	✓
2020 NH-2 House	Dem 86%	Dem	0.021	✓
2020 NJ-2 House	Dem 59%	Rep	0.349	✗
2020 NM-1 House	Dem 98%	Dem	0.001	✓
2020 NM-2 House	Dem 51%	Rep	0.259	✗
2020 NM-3 House	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 NY-1 House	Rep 60%	Rep	0.157	✓
2020 NY-11 House	Dem 74%	Rep	0.547	✗
2020 NY-18 House	Dem 86%	Dem	0.021	✓
2020 NY-22 House	Dem 67%	Rep	0.449	✗
2020 NY-23 House	Rep 93%	Rep	0.005	✓
2020 NY-24 House	Rep 53%	Rep	0.220	✓
2020 OH-1 House	Rep 68%	Rep	0.102	✓
2020 OH-10 House	Rep 72%	Rep	0.079	✓
2020 OH-12 House	Rep 91%	Rep	0.009	✓
2020 OK-1 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 OK-5 House	Rep 54%	Rep	0.211	✓
2020 PA-1 House	Rep 64%	Rep	0.132	✓
2020 PA-10 House	Rep 53%	Rep	0.216	✓
2020 PA-7 House	Dem 82%	Dem	0.031	✓
2020 PA-8 House	Dem 76%	Dem	0.056	✓
2020 SC-1 House	Rep 57%	Rep	0.182	✓
2020 TX-10 House	Rep 71%	Rep	0.083	✓
2020 TX-21 House	Rep 67%	Rep	0.108	✓
2020 TX-22 House	Dem 67%	Rep	0.448	✗
2020 TX-23 House	Dem 68%	Rep	0.459	✗
2020 TX-25 House	Rep 82%	Rep	0.032	✓
2020 TX-3 House	Rep 64%	Rep	0.131	✓
2020 TX-6 House	Rep 89%	Rep	0.013	✓
2020 TX-7 House	Dem 54%	Dem	0.211	✓
2020 UT-1 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 UT-2 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 UT-3 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 UT-4 House	Rep 52%	Rep	0.235	✓
2020 VA-10 House	Dem 89%	Dem	0.013	✓
2020 VA-2 House	Dem 79%	Dem	0.045	✓
2020 VA-5 House	Dem 63%	Rep	0.391	✗
2020 VA-7 House	Dem 59%	Dem	0.167	✓
2020 VT-1 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 WA-3 House	Rep 62%	Rep	0.141	✓
2020 WY-1 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 AK President	Rep 81%	Rep	0.036	✓
2020 AL President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 AR President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 AZ President	Dem 58%	Dem	0.176	✓
2020 CA President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 CO President	Dem 93%	Dem	0.005	✓
2020 CT President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 DC President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 DE President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 FL President	Dem 63%	Rep	0.397	✗
2020 GA President	Dem 53%	Dem	0.221	✓
2020 HI President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 IA President	Rep 56%	Rep	0.194	✓
2020 ID President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 IL President	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 IN President	Rep 93%	Rep	0.005	✓
2020 KS President	Rep 94%	Rep	0.004	✓
2020 KY President	Rep 92%	Rep	0.006	✓
2020 LA President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 MA President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 MD President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 ME President	Dem 94%	Dem	0.004	✓
2020 MI President	Dem 81%	Dem	0.036	✓
2020 MN President	Dem 86%	Dem	0.020	✓
2020 MO President	Rep 85%	Rep	0.023	✓
2020 MS President	Rep 96%	Rep	0.002	✓
2020 MT President	Rep 80%	Rep	0.040	✓
2020 NC President	Dem 56%	Rep	0.314	✗
2020 ND President	Rep 98%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 NE President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 NH President	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2020 NJ President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 NM President	Dem 96%	Dem	0.002	✓
2020 NV President	Dem 75%	Dem	0.062	✓
2020 NY President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 OH President	Rep 55%	Rep	0.202	✓
2020 OK President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 OR President	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 PA President	Dem 74%	Dem	0.068	✓
2020 RI President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 SC President	Rep 85%	Rep	0.023	✓
2020 SD President	Rep 98%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 TN President	Rep 97%	Rep	0.001	✓
2020 TX President	Rep 61%	Rep	0.152	✓
2020 UT President	Rep 92%	Rep	0.006	✓
2020 VA President	Dem 93%	Dem	0.005	✓
2020 VT President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 WA President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 WI President	Dem 78%	Dem	0.048	✓
2020 WV President	Rep 98%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 WY President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 AK Senate	Rep 67%	Rep	0.109	✓
2020 AL Senate	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2020 AR Senate	Rep 100%	Dem	1.000	✗
2020 CO Senate	Dem 86%	Dem	0.020	✓
2020 DE Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 GA Senate	Dem 56%	Dem	0.194	✓
2020 IA Senate	Dem 51%	Rep	0.260	✗
2020 IL Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 KS Senate	Rep 67%	Rep	0.109	✓
2020 KY Senate	Rep 91%	Rep	0.008	✓
2020 MA Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 ME Senate	Dem 65%	Rep	0.423	✗
2020 MI Senate	Dem 86%	Dem	0.020	✓
2020 MN Senate	Dem 88%	Dem	0.014	✓
2020 MS Senate	Rep 84%	Rep	0.026	✓
2020 MT Senate	Rep 59%	Rep	0.168	✓
2020 NC Senate	Dem 68%	Rep	0.462	✗
2020 NE Senate	Rep 98%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 NH Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 NJ Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 NM Senate	Dem 94%	Dem	0.004	✓
2020 OK Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 OR Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 SC Senate	Rep 65%	Rep	0.122	✓
2020 SD Senate	Rep 96%	Rep	0.002	✓
2020 TN Senate	Rep 97%	Rep	0.001	✓
2020 TX Senate	Rep 81%	Rep	0.036	✓
2020 VA Senate	Dem 97%	Dem	0.001	✓
2020 WV Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 WY Senate	Rep 97%	Rep	0.001	✓
2018 AK-1 House	Rep 67%	Rep	0.109	✓
2018 AR-2 House	Rep 88%	Rep	0.015	✓
2018 AZ-1 House	Dem 55%	Dem	0.199	✓
2018 AZ-2 House	Dem 86%	Dem	0.019	✓
2018 AZ-4 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2018 AZ-6 House	Rep 98%	Rep	0.001	✓
2018 AZ-8 House	Rep 69%	Rep	0.099	✓
2018 CA-10 House	Dem 62%	Dem	0.145	✓
2018 CA-16 House	Dem 95%	Dem	0.002	✓
2018 CA-21 House	Rep 63%	Dem	0.393	✗
2018 CA-22 House	Rep 87%	Rep	0.017	✓
2018 CA-25 House	Dem 50%	Dem	0.247	✓
2018 CA-39 House	Rep 54%	Dem	0.294	✗
2018 CA-4 House	Rep 66%	Rep	0.114	✓
2018 CA-45 House	Dem 53%	Dem	0.226	✓
2018 CA-48 House	Rep 53%	Dem	0.284	✗
2018 CA-49 House	Dem 82%	Dem	0.032	✓
2018 CA-50 House	Rep 69%	Rep	0.094	✓
2018 CO-3 House	Rep 85%	Rep	0.022	✓
2018 CO-6 House	Dem 75%	Dem	0.062	✓
2018 DE-1 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 FL-1 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2018 FL-15 House	Rep 62%	Rep	0.141	✓
2018 FL-16 House	Rep 85%	Rep	0.021	✓
2018 FL-18 House	Rep 74%	Rep	0.068	✓
2018 FL-19 House	Rep 95%	Rep	0.002	✓
2018 FL-25 House	Rep 77%	Rep	0.053	✓
2018 FL-26 House	Dem 52%	Dem	0.229	✓
2018 FL-27 House	Dem 64%	Dem	0.127	✓
2018 FL-6 House	Rep 61%	Rep	0.154	✓
2018 FL-9 House	Dem 92%	Dem	0.006	✓
2018 GA-3 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2018 GA-6 House	Rep 51%	Dem	0.255	✗
2018 GA-7 House	Rep 78%	Rep	0.050	✓
2018 IA-1 House	Dem 71%	Dem	0.082	✓
2018 IA-2 House	Dem 96%	Dem	0.002	✓
2018 IA-3 House	Dem 52%	Dem	0.231	✓
2018 IA-4 House	Rep 76%	Rep	0.057	✓
2018 IL-12 House	Rep 65%	Rep	0.123	✓
2018 IL-13 House	Rep 62%	Rep	0.146	✓
2018 IL-14 House	Dem 56%	Dem	0.196	✓
2018 IL-16 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2018 IL-6 House	Dem 57%	Dem	0.189	✓
2018 IN-5 House	Rep 91%	Rep	0.009	✓
2018 IN-9 House	Rep 81%	Rep	0.038	✓
2018 KS-1 House	Rep 93%	Rep	0.004	✓
2018 KS-2 House	Dem 52%	Rep	0.267	✗
2018 KS-3 House	Dem 71%	Dem	0.083	✓
2018 KS-4 House	Rep 97%	Rep	0.001	✓
2018 KY-6 House	Dem 50%	Rep	0.253	✗
2018 ME-1 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 ME-2 House	Dem 52%	Dem	0.234	✓
2018 MI-1 House	Rep 93%	Rep	0.005	✓
2018 MI-11 House	Dem 68%	Dem	0.106	✓
2018 MI-2 House	Rep 87%	Rep	0.017	✓
2018 MI-6 House	Rep 63%	Rep	0.136	✓
2018 MI-8 House	Dem 53%	Dem	0.224	✓
2018 MN-1 House	Dem 53%	Rep	0.285	✗
2018 MN-2 House	Dem 67%	Dem	0.110	✓
2018 MN-3 House	Dem 74%	Dem	0.069	✓
2018 MN-7 House	Dem 95%	Dem	0.003	✓
2018 MN-8 House	Rep 62%	Rep	0.143	✓
2018 MT-1 House	Rep 74%	Rep	0.070	✓
2018 NC-13 House	Rep 60%	Rep	0.161	✓
2018 NC-2 House	Rep 71%	Rep	0.086	✓
2018 ND-1 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2018 NE-1 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2018 NE-2 House	Rep 79%	Rep	0.045	✓
2018 NH-1 House	Dem 77%	Dem	0.051	✓
2018 NH-2 House	Dem 97%	Dem	0.001	✓
2018 NJ-11 House	Dem 77%	Dem	0.053	✓
2018 NJ-2 House	Dem 96%	Dem	0.002	✓
2018 NJ-3 House	Dem 55%	Dem	0.205	✓
2018 NJ-5 House	Dem 91%	Dem	0.008	✓
2018 NJ-7 House	Dem 68%	Dem	0.101	✓
2018 NM-1 House	Dem 93%	Dem	0.005	✓
2018 NM-2 House	Rep 55%	Dem	0.303	✗
2018 NM-3 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 NV-1 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 NV-2 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2018 NV-3 House	Dem 73%	Dem	0.074	✓
2018 NV-4 House	Dem 61%	Dem	0.152	✓
2018 NY-1 House	Rep 79%	Dem	0.626	✗
2018 NY-11 House	Rep 63%	Dem	0.402	✗
2018 NY-19 House	Dem 55%	Dem	0.199	✓
2018 NY-21 House	Rep 93%	Rep	0.005	✓
2018 NY-22 House	Rep 58%	Dem	0.341	✗
2018 NY-23 House	Rep 78%	Rep	0.047	✓
2018 NY-24 House	Rep 75%	Dem	0.565	✗
2018 NY-25 House	Dem 93%	Dem	0.006	✓
2018 NY-27 House	Rep 69%	Dem	0.471	✗
2018 OH-1 House	Rep 68%	Rep	0.102	✓
2018 OH-12 House	Rep 53%	Rep	0.223	✓
2018 OH-16 House	Rep 93%	Rep	0.005	✓
2018 OH-2 House	Rep 97%	Rep	0.001	✓
2018 OH-4 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2018 OH-7 House	Rep 82%	Rep	0.031	✓
2018 OK-1 House	Rep 94%	Rep	0.004	✓
2018 OK-2 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2018 OK-3 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2018 OK-4 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2018 OK-5 House	Rep 92%	Dem	0.851	✗
2018 OR-2 House	Rep 91%	Rep	0.007	✓
2018 OR-5 House	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 PA-1 House	Dem 54%	Rep	0.292	✗
2018 PA-10 House	Rep 59%	Rep	0.166	✓
2018 PA-11 House	Rep 88%	Rep	0.013	✓
2018 PA-13 House	Rep 91%	Rep	0.008	✓
2018 PA-16 House	Rep 65%	Rep	0.121	✓
2018 PA-17 House	Dem 74%	Dem	0.069	✓
2018 PA-18 House	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 PA-7 House	Dem 81%	Dem	0.038	✓
2018 PA-8 House	Dem 90%	Dem	0.011	✓
2018 PA-9 House	Rep 96%	Rep	0.002	✓
2018 SD-1 House	Rep 98%	Rep	0.000	✓
2018 TX-12 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2018 TX-2 House	Rep 88%	Rep	0.014	✓
2018 TX-21 House	Rep 82%	Rep	0.032	✓
2018 TX-23 House	Rep 79%	Rep	0.043	✓
2018 TX-31 House	Rep 86%	Rep	0.019	✓
2018 TX-32 House	Dem 61%	Dem	0.149	✓
2018 TX-7 House	Dem 51%	Dem	0.242	✓
2018 UT-1 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2018 UT-2 House	Rep 96%	Rep	0.001	✓
2018 UT-3 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2018 UT-4 House	Dem 53%	Dem	0.220	✓
2018 VA-10 House	Dem 71%	Dem	0.086	✓
2018 VA-2 House	Dem 51%	Dem	0.244	✓
2018 VA-5 House	Rep 59%	Rep	0.168	✓
2018 VA-7 House	Rep 52%	Dem	0.270	✗
2018 VT-1 House	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 WA-3 House	Rep 61%	Rep	0.151	✓
2018 WA-5 House	Rep 69%	Rep	0.095	✓
2018 WA-8 House	Rep 52%	Dem	0.270	✗
2018 WI-1 House	Rep 55%	Rep	0.202	✓
2018 WI-6 House	Rep 76%	Rep	0.058	✓
2018 WV-1 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2018 WV-2 House	Rep 86%	Rep	0.020	✓
2018 WV-3 House	Rep 66%	Rep	0.117	✓
2018 WY-1 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2018 AZ Senate	Dem 57%	Dem	0.184	✓
2018 CA Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 CT Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 DE Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 FL Senate	Dem 68%	Rep	0.464	✗
2018 IN Senate	Dem 59%	Rep	0.345	✗
2018 MA Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 MD Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 ME Senate	Dem 98%	Rep	0.966	✗
2018 MI Senate	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2018 MN Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 MO Senate	Rep 51%	Rep	0.240	✓
2018 MS Senate	Rep 97%	Rep	0.001	✓
2018 MT Senate	Dem 74%	Dem	0.065	✓
2018 ND Senate	Rep 77%	Rep	0.054	✓
2018 NE Senate	Rep 97%	Rep	0.001	✓
2018 NJ Senate	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2018 NM Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 NV Senate	Dem 54%	Dem	0.214	✓
2018 NY Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 OH Senate	Dem 95%	Dem	0.002	✓
2018 PA Senate	Dem 95%	Dem	0.003	✓
2018 RI Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 TN Senate	Rep 73%	Rep	0.072	✓
2018 TX Senate	Rep 72%	Rep	0.076	✓
2018 UT Senate	Rep 92%	Rep	0.006	✓
2018 VA Senate	Dem 94%	Dem	0.004	✓
2018 VT Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 WA Senate	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 WI Senate	Dem 96%	Dem	0.002	✓
2018 WV Senate	Dem 68%	Dem	0.100	✓
2018 WY Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓

By office

Office	Races	Brier	Called right
House	336	0.126	84%
Senate	115	0.089	90%

By cycle

Year	Races	Brier	Called right
2018	172	0.103	88%
2020	167	0.102	87%
2022	100	0.150	78%
2024	103	0.062	94%

Why no “time to election” curve? Unlike pollsters — where we have every poll with its field dates — our forecaster archive (JHK Forecasts) stores only each outfit's final pre-election forecast per race, not its earlier snapshots. So a lead-time breakdown genuinely isn't in the data for forecasters. Pollster pages do show it (e.g. the leaderboard).