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Split Ticket
Forecaster quality, broken out by office and by cycle. Scored on the Brier score of its final pre-election win probability (lower is better), over 203 races, 2016–2024.
Overall Brier
0.107
Races scored
203
Head-to-head vs the VotePredictor model
Apples-to-apples: on the 203 races Split Ticket forecast, its win-probability Brier vs VotePredictor's calibrated win-prob on those same races.
| Model | Brier | Called right |
|---|---|---|
| Split Ticket | 0.107 | 86% |
| VotePredictor | 0.095 | 87% |
Every race (203)
Each race Split Ticket scored, with its final pre-election call vs who actually won, and the Brier score for that call. Click a race for its full detail.
| Race | Their call | Winner | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 AK-1 House | Dem 51% | Rep | 0.260 | ✗ |
| 2024 AL-2 House | Dem 81% | Dem | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 2024 CA-22 House | Dem 56% | Rep | 0.314 | ✗ |
| 2024 CA-47 House | Dem 69% | Dem | 0.096 | ✓ |
| 2024 CA-49 House | Dem 91% | Dem | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2024 CA-51 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 CO-8 House | Dem 57% | Rep | 0.325 | ✗ |
| 2024 CT-5 House | Dem 70% | Dem | 0.090 | ✓ |
| 2024 FL-13 House | Rep 55% | Rep | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 2024 FL-4 House | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2024 GA-2 House | Dem 88% | Dem | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 2024 IA-1 House | Rep 65% | Rep | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 2024 IA-2 House | Rep 94% | Rep | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2024 IA-3 House | Rep 55% | Rep | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 2024 IA-4 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 IL-17 House | Dem 83% | Dem | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 2024 ME-1 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 ME-2 House | Dem 67% | Dem | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 2024 MI-10 House | Rep 70% | Rep | 0.090 | ✓ |
| 2024 MI-7 House | Rep 61% | Rep | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 2024 MT-1 House | Rep 77% | Rep | 0.053 | ✓ |
| 2024 NE-1 House | Rep 96% | Rep | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2024 NE-2 House | Dem 65% | Rep | 0.423 | ✗ |
| 2024 NE-3 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NH-1 House | Dem 88% | Dem | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 2024 NH-2 House | Dem 93% | Dem | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY-1 House | Rep 72% | Rep | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY-17 House | Rep 61% | Rep | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY-18 House | Dem 87% | Dem | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY-22 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY-3 House | Dem 97% | Dem | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY-4 House | Dem 83% | Dem | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 2024 OH-13 House | Dem 72% | Dem | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 2024 PA-8 House | Dem 65% | Rep | 0.423 | ✗ |
| 2024 SD-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 VA-2 House | Rep 62% | Rep | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 2024 VA-7 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2024 VT-1 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 AK President | Rep 93% | Rep | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2024 AZ President | Rep 63% | Rep | 0.137 | ✓ |
| 2024 CA President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 CO President | Dem 92% | Dem | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2024 FL President | Rep 81% | Rep | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 2024 GA President | Rep 58% | Rep | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 2024 IA President | Rep 78% | Rep | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 2024 MA President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 MD President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 ME President | Dem 89% | Dem | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 2024 ME-1 President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 ME-2 President | Rep 81% | Rep | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 2024 MI President | Dem 61% | Rep | 0.372 | ✗ |
| 2024 MN President | Dem 84% | Dem | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2024 MO President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 MT President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NC President | Rep 58% | Rep | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 2024 NE President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NE-1 President | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NE-2 President | Dem 88% | Dem | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 2024 NE-3 President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NH President | Dem 77% | Dem | 0.053 | ✓ |
| 2024 NJ President | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NM President | Dem 84% | Dem | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2024 NV President | Rep 50% | Rep | 0.249 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 OH President | Rep 88% | Rep | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 2024 OK President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 OR President | Dem 96% | Dem | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2024 PA President | Dem 53% | Rep | 0.281 | ✗ |
| 2024 RI President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 SC President | Rep 97% | Rep | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2024 SD President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 TX President | Rep 83% | Rep | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 2024 UT President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 VA President | Dem 84% | Dem | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2024 VT President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 WA President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 WI President | Dem 57% | Rep | 0.325 | ✗ |
| 2024 WY President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 AZ Senate | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2024 CA Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 FL Senate | Rep 78% | Rep | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 2024 MA Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 MD Senate | Dem 95% | Dem | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2024 ME Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 MI Senate | Dem 71% | Dem | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 2024 MN Senate | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 MO Senate | Rep 95% | Rep | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2024 MT Senate | Rep 79% | Rep | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 2024 NE Senate | Rep 78% | Rep | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 2024 NJ Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NM Senate | Dem 93% | Dem | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2024 NV Senate | Dem 78% | Dem | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 OH Senate | Rep 56% | Rep | 0.194 | ✓ |
| 2024 PA Senate | Dem 66% | Rep | 0.436 | ✗ |
| 2024 RI Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 TX Senate | Rep 73% | Rep | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 2024 UT Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 VA Senate | Dem 93% | Dem | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2024 VT Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 WA Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 WI Senate | Dem 64% | Dem | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 2024 WY Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 AK-1 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 CA-21 House | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 CA-26 House | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 CA-27 House | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 CA-41 House | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 CA-49 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 CO-3 House | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 CO-8 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 CT-2 House | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 CT-4 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 CT-5 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 DE-1 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-1 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-13 House | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-15 House | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-2 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-27 House | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-28 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-4 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 GA-2 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 IA-3 House | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 IL-10 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 IL-17 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 KS-2 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 KS-3 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 MD-1 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 MD-2 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 MD-6 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 ME-1 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 ME-2 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 MI-10 House | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 MI-7 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 MI-8 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 MN-1 House | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 MN-2 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 MT-1 House | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 MT-2 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 NC-1 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 NC-13 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 ND-1 House | Rep 99% | Dem | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 2022 NH-1 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 NH-2 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 NJ-7 House | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 NM-1 House | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 NM-2 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 NM-3 House | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 NV-1 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 NV-2 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 NV-3 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 NV-4 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 NY-11 House | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 NY-17 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 NY-19 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 NY-22 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 NY-25 House | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 OH-1 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 OH-13 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 OR-4 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 OR-6 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 PA-12 House | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 PA-17 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 PA-7 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 PA-8 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 RI-2 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 SD-1 House | Rep 99% | Dem | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 2022 TX-15 House | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 VA-10 House | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 VA-2 House | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 VA-7 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 VT-1 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 WA-3 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 WY-1 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 AK Senate | Rep 99% | Dem | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 2022 AL Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 AR Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 AZ Senate | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 CA Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 CO Senate | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 CT Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 GA Senate | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 IA Senate | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 IL Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 IN Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 KS Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 MD Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 MO Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 NC Senate | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 NH Senate | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 NV Senate | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 NY Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 OH Senate | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 OK Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 OR Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 PA Senate | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 SD Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 UT Senate | Rep 90% | Dem | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 2022 VT Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 WA Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 WI Senate | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
By office
| Office | Races | Brier | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|
| House | 110 | 0.143 | 80% |
| Senate | 53 | 0.075 | 93% |
By cycle
| Year | Races | Brier | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 100 | 0.149 | 80% |
| 2024 | 103 | 0.066 | 91% |
Why no “time to election” curve? Unlike pollsters — where we have every poll with its field dates — our forecaster archive (JHK Forecasts) stores only each outfit's final pre-election forecast per race, not its earlier snapshots. So a lead-time breakdown genuinely isn't in the data for forecasters. Pollster pages do show it (e.g. the leaderboard).