Race to the WH

Forecaster quality, broken out by office and by cycle. Scored on the Brier score of its final pre-election win probability (lower is better), over 284 races, 2016–2024.

Overall Brier

0.083

Races scored

284

Head-to-head vs the VotePredictor model

Apples-to-apples: on the 284 races Race to the WH forecast, its win-probability Brier vs VotePredictor's calibrated win-prob on those same races.

Model	Brier	Called right
Race to the WH	0.083	88%
VotePredictor	0.078	89%

Every race (284)

Each race Race to the WH scored, with its final pre-election call vs who actually won, and the Brier score for that call. Click a race for its full detail.

Race	Their call	Winner	Brier	Called
2024 AK-1 House	Dem 64%	Rep	0.407	✗
2024 AL-2 House	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2024 CA-22 House	Dem 78%	Rep	0.608	✗
2024 CA-47 House	Dem 79%	Dem	0.045	✓
2024 CA-49 House	Dem 94%	Dem	0.004	✓
2024 CA-51 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 CO-8 House	Dem 84%	Rep	0.702	✗
2024 CT-5 House	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2024 FL-13 House	Rep 95%	Rep	0.003	✓
2024 FL-4 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 GA-2 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 IA-1 House	Rep 71%	Rep	0.087	✓
2024 IA-2 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 IA-3 House	Rep 83%	Rep	0.030	✓
2024 IA-4 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 IL-17 House	Dem 92%	Dem	0.007	✓
2024 ME-1 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 ME-2 House	Dem 82%	Dem	0.033	✓
2024 MI-10 House	Rep 90%	Rep	0.011	✓
2024 MI-7 House	Rep 56%	Rep	0.193	✓
2024 MT-1 House	Rep 90%	Rep	0.011	✓
2024 NE-1 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 NE-2 House	Dem 79%	Rep	0.616	✗
2024 NE-3 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 NH-1 House	Dem 96%	Dem	0.002	✓
2024 NH-2 House	Dem 93%	Dem	0.005	✓
2024 NY-1 House	Rep 92%	Rep	0.006	✓
2024 NY-17 House	Dem 52%	Rep	0.270	✗
2024 NY-18 House	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2024 NY-22 House	Dem 88%	Dem	0.014	✓
2024 NY-3 House	Dem 96%	Dem	0.002	✓
2024 NY-4 House	Dem 86%	Dem	0.019	✓
2024 OH-13 House	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2024 PA-8 House	Dem 84%	Rep	0.707	✗
2024 SD-1 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 VA-2 House	Rep 88%	Rep	0.016	✓
2024 VA-7 House	Dem 82%	Dem	0.034	✓
2024 VT-1 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 AK President	Rep 96%	Rep	0.002	✓
2024 AZ President	Rep 69%	Rep	0.099	✓
2024 CA President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 CO President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 FL President	Rep 94%	Rep	0.003	✓
2024 GA President	Rep 59%	Rep	0.165	✓
2024 IA President	Rep 82%	Rep	0.033	✓
2024 MA President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 MD President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 ME President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 ME-1 President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 ME-2 President	Rep 88%	Rep	0.014	✓
2024 MI President	Dem 65%	Rep	0.421	✗
2024 MN President	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 MO President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 MT President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 NC President	Rep 64%	Rep	0.130	✓
2024 NE President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 NE-1 President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 NE-2 President	Dem 92%	Dem	0.006	✓
2024 NE-3 President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 NH President	Dem 93%	Dem	0.005	✓
2024 NJ President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 NM President	Dem 97%	Dem	0.001	✓
2024 NV President	Dem 50%	Rep	0.253	✗
2024 NY President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 OH President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 OK President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 OR President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 PA President	Dem 51%	Rep	0.256	✗
2024 RI President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 SC President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 SD President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 TX President	Rep 95%	Rep	0.002	✓
2024 UT President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 VA President	Dem 95%	Dem	0.003	✓
2024 VT President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 WA President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 WI President	Dem 57%	Rep	0.321	✗
2024 WY President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 AZ Senate	Dem 95%	Dem	0.003	✓
2024 CA Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 FL Senate	Rep 89%	Rep	0.013	✓
2024 MA Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 MD Senate	Dem 98%	Dem	0.001	✓
2024 ME Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 MI Senate	Dem 88%	Dem	0.015	✓
2024 MN Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 MO Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 MT Senate	Rep 71%	Rep	0.083	✓
2024 NE Senate	Rep 82%	Rep	0.031	✓
2024 NJ Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 NM Senate	Dem 97%	Dem	0.001	✓
2024 NV Senate	Dem 97%	Dem	0.001	✓
2024 NY Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 OH Senate	Dem 61%	Rep	0.372	✗
2024 PA Senate	Dem 91%	Rep	0.835	✗
2024 RI Senate	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 TX Senate	Rep 81%	Rep	0.035	✓
2024 UT Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 VA Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 VT Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 WA Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 WI Senate	Dem 80%	Dem	0.040	✓
2024 WY Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 AK-1 House	Dem 71%	Dem	0.084	✓
2022 CA-21 House	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 CA-26 House	Dem 94%	Dem	0.004	✓
2022 CA-27 House	Dem 56%	Rep	0.314	✗
2022 CA-41 House	Rep 91%	Rep	0.008	✓
2022 CA-49 House	Dem 83%	Dem	0.029	✓
2022 CO-3 House	Rep 97%	Rep	0.001	✓
2022 CO-8 House	Dem 52%	Dem	0.230	✓
2022 CT-2 House	Dem 95%	Dem	0.003	✓
2022 CT-4 House	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 CT-5 House	Dem 72%	Dem	0.078	✓
2022 DE-1 House	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 FL-1 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 FL-13 House	Rep 85%	Rep	0.023	✓
2022 FL-15 House	Rep 93%	Rep	0.005	✓
2022 FL-2 House	Rep 98%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 FL-27 House	Rep 94%	Rep	0.004	✓
2022 FL-28 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 FL-4 House	Rep 97%	Rep	0.001	✓
2022 GA-2 House	Dem 95%	Dem	0.003	✓
2022 IA-3 House	Rep 57%	Rep	0.185	✓
2022 IL-10 House	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 IL-17 House	Dem 61%	Dem	0.152	✓
2022 KS-2 House	Rep 98%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 KS-3 House	Dem 94%	Dem	0.004	✓
2022 MD-1 House	Rep 98%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 MD-2 House	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 MD-6 House	Dem 88%	Dem	0.014	✓
2022 ME-1 House	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 ME-2 House	Dem 71%	Dem	0.084	✓
2022 MI-10 House	Rep 85%	Rep	0.023	✓
2022 MI-7 House	Dem 84%	Dem	0.026	✓
2022 MI-8 House	Dem 84%	Dem	0.026	✓
2022 MN-1 House	Rep 97%	Rep	0.001	✓
2022 MN-2 House	Dem 75%	Dem	0.062	✓
2022 MT-1 House	Rep 92%	Rep	0.006	✓
2022 MT-2 House	Rep 98%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 NC-1 House	Dem 86%	Dem	0.020	✓
2022 NC-13 House	Rep 57%	Dem	0.325	✗
2022 ND-1 House	Rep 98%	Dem	0.960	✗
2022 NH-1 House	Dem 57%	Dem	0.185	✓
2022 NH-2 House	Dem 86%	Dem	0.020	✓
2022 NJ-7 House	Rep 55%	Rep	0.202	✓
2022 NM-1 House	Dem 97%	Dem	0.001	✓
2022 NM-2 House	Rep 55%	Dem	0.303	✗
2022 NM-3 House	Dem 95%	Dem	0.003	✓
2022 NV-1 House	Rep 77%	Dem	0.593	✗
2022 NV-2 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 NV-3 House	Rep 51%	Dem	0.260	✗
2022 NV-4 House	Dem 84%	Dem	0.026	✓
2022 NY-11 House	Rep 95%	Rep	0.003	✓
2022 NY-17 House	Dem 86%	Dem	0.020	✓
2022 NY-19 House	Dem 64%	Dem	0.130	✓
2022 NY-22 House	Dem 59%	Dem	0.168	✓
2022 NY-25 House	Dem 95%	Dem	0.003	✓
2022 OH-1 House	Dem 63%	Dem	0.137	✓
2022 OH-13 House	Rep 56%	Dem	0.314	✗
2022 OR-4 House	Dem 61%	Dem	0.152	✓
2022 OR-6 House	Dem 60%	Dem	0.160	✓
2022 PA-12 House	Dem 97%	Dem	0.001	✓
2022 PA-17 House	Dem 58%	Dem	0.176	✓
2022 PA-7 House	Rep 52%	Dem	0.270	✗
2022 PA-8 House	Dem 72%	Dem	0.078	✓
2022 RI-2 House	Rep 58%	Dem	0.336	✗
2022 SD-1 House	Rep 99%	Dem	0.980	✗
2022 TX-15 House	Rep 87%	Rep	0.017	✓
2022 VA-10 House	Dem 95%	Dem	0.003	✓
2022 VA-2 House	Dem 72%	Rep	0.518	✗
2022 VA-7 House	Dem 85%	Dem	0.023	✓
2022 VT-1 House	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 WA-3 House	Rep 95%	Dem	0.902	✗
2022 WY-1 House	Rep 98%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 AK Senate	Rep 100%	Dem	1.000	✗
2022 AL Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 AR Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 AZ Senate	Dem 69%	Dem	0.096	✓
2022 CA Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 CO Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 CT Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 FL Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 GA Senate	Dem 55%	Dem	0.202	✓
2022 IA Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 IL Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 IN Senate	Rep 97%	Rep	0.001	✓
2022 KS Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 MD Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 MO Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 NC Senate	Rep 89%	Rep	0.012	✓
2022 NH Senate	Dem 78%	Dem	0.048	✓
2022 NV Senate	Rep 53%	Dem	0.281	✗
2022 NY Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 OH Senate	Rep 85%	Rep	0.023	✓
2022 OK Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 OR Senate	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 PA Senate	Dem 52%	Dem	0.230	✓
2022 SD Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 UT Senate	Rep 89%	Dem	0.792	✗
2022 VT Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 WA Senate	Dem 96%	Dem	0.002	✓
2022 WI Senate	Rep 89%	Rep	0.012	✓
2020 AK President	Rep 94%	Rep	0.004	✓
2020 AL President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 AR President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 AZ President	Dem 82%	Dem	0.032	✓
2020 CA President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 CO President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 CT President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 DC President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 DE President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 FL President	Dem 86%	Rep	0.740	✗
2020 GA President	Dem 60%	Dem	0.160	✓
2020 HI President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 IA President	Rep 67%	Rep	0.109	✓
2020 ID President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 IL President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 IN President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 KS President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 KY President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 LA President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 MA President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 MD President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 ME President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 MI President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 MN President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 MO President	Rep 98%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 MS President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 MT President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 NC President	Dem 74%	Rep	0.548	✗
2020 ND President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 NE President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 NH President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 NJ President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 NM President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 NV President	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 NY President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 OH President	Dem 51%	Rep	0.260	✗
2020 OK President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 OR President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 PA President	Dem 97%	Dem	0.001	✓
2020 RI President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 SC President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 SD President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 TN President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 TX President	Rep 70%	Rep	0.090	✓
2020 UT President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 VA President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 VT President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 WA President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 WI President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 WV President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 WY President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 AK Senate	Rep 70%	Rep	0.090	✓
2020 AL Senate	Rep 96%	Rep	0.002	✓
2020 AR Senate	Rep 100%	Dem	1.000	✗
2020 CO Senate	Dem 94%	Dem	0.004	✓
2020 DE Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 GA Senate	Dem 57%	Dem	0.185	✓
2020 IA Senate	Dem 52%	Rep	0.270	✗
2020 IL Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 KS Senate	Rep 70%	Rep	0.090	✓
2020 KY Senate	Rep 96%	Rep	0.002	✓
2020 MA Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 ME Senate	Dem 79%	Rep	0.624	✗
2020 MI Senate	Dem 91%	Dem	0.008	✓
2020 MN Senate	Dem 93%	Dem	0.005	✓
2020 MS Senate	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2020 MT Senate	Rep 63%	Rep	0.137	✓
2020 NC Senate	Dem 73%	Rep	0.533	✗
2020 NE Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 NH Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 NJ Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 NM Senate	Dem 96%	Dem	0.002	✓
2020 OK Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 OR Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 SC Senate	Rep 74%	Rep	0.068	✓
2020 SD Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 TN Senate	Rep 98%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 TX Senate	Rep 83%	Rep	0.029	✓
2020 VA Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 WV Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 WY Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓

By office

Office	Races	Brier	Called right
House	110	0.114	84%
Senate	83	0.087	89%

By cycle

Year	Races	Brier	Called right
2020	81	0.062	91%
2022	100	0.114	85%
2024	103	0.068	88%

Why no “time to election” curve? Unlike pollsters — where we have every poll with its field dates — our forecaster archive (JHK Forecasts) stores only each outfit's final pre-election forecast per race, not its earlier snapshots. So a lead-time breakdown genuinely isn't in the data for forecasters. Pollster pages do show it (e.g. the leaderboard).