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FiveThirtyEight
No longer active. FiveThirtyEight was shut down and its site decommissioned; its polling data feed has not updated since September 2023. Its ratings here cover 2016–2024 and are final. Nate Silver's successor project, Silver Bulletin, is rated separately.
Forecaster quality, broken out by office and by cycle. Scored on the Brier score of its final pre-election win probability (lower is better), over 683 races, 2016–2024.
Overall Brier
0.072
Races scored
683
Head-to-head vs VotePredictor Elections
Apples-to-apples: on the 615 races FiveThirtyEight forecast, its win-probability Brier vs VotePredictor Elections' calibrated win-prob on those same races.
| Model | Brier | Called right |
|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight | 0.074 | 90% |
| VotePredictor Elections | 0.088 | 89% |
Every race (683)
Each race FiveThirtyEight scored, with its final pre-election call vs who actually won, and the Brier score for that call. Click a race for its full detail.
| Race | Their call | Winner | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 AK-1 House | Rep 62% | Rep | 0.142 | ✓ |
| 2024 AL-2 House | Dem 91% | Dem | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2024 CA-22 House | Rep 54% | Rep | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 2024 CA-47 House | Dem 79% | Dem | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 2024 CA-49 House | Dem 95% | Dem | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2024 CA-51 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 CO-8 House | Dem 67% | Rep | 0.454 | ✗ |
| 2024 CT-5 House | Dem 85% | Dem | 0.024 | ✓ |
| 2024 FL-13 House | Rep 80% | Rep | 0.039 | ✓ |
| 2024 FL-4 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 GA-2 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 IA-1 House | Rep 56% | Rep | 0.191 | ✓ |
| 2024 IA-2 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 IA-3 House | Rep 64% | Rep | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 2024 IA-4 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 IL-17 House | Dem 91% | Dem | 0.007 | ✓ |
| 2024 ME-1 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 ME-2 House | Dem 68% | Dem | 0.103 | ✓ |
| 2024 MI-10 House | Rep 69% | Rep | 0.094 | ✓ |
| 2024 MI-7 House | Rep 68% | Rep | 0.101 | ✓ |
| 2024 MT-1 House | Rep 82% | Rep | 0.031 | ✓ |
| 2024 NE-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NE-2 House | Dem 67% | Rep | 0.451 | ✗ |
| 2024 NE-3 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NH-1 House | Dem 96% | Dem | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2024 NH-2 House | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY-1 House | Rep 84% | Rep | 0.027 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY-17 House | Rep 64% | Rep | 0.133 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY-18 House | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.011 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY-22 House | Dem 78% | Dem | 0.049 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY-3 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY-4 House | Dem 77% | Dem | 0.054 | ✓ |
| 2024 OH-13 House | Dem 80% | Dem | 0.039 | ✓ |
| 2024 PA-8 House | Dem 69% | Rep | 0.479 | ✗ |
| 2024 SD-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 VA-2 House | Rep 74% | Rep | 0.068 | ✓ |
| 2024 VA-7 House | Dem 76% | Dem | 0.057 | ✓ |
| 2024 VT-1 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 AK President | Rep 97% | Rep | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2024 AZ President | Rep 67% | Rep | 0.106 | ✓ |
| 2024 CA President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 CO President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 FL President | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.011 | ✓ |
| 2024 GA President | Rep 60% | Rep | 0.164 | ✓ |
| 2024 IA President | Rep 93% | Rep | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2024 MA President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 MD President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 ME President | Dem 96% | Dem | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2024 ME-1 President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 ME-2 President | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.009 | ✓ |
| 2024 MI President | Dem 61% | Rep | 0.366 | ✗ |
| 2024 MN President | Dem 88% | Dem | 0.015 | ✓ |
| 2024 MO President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 MT President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NC President | Rep 59% | Rep | 0.165 | ✓ |
| 2024 NE President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NE-1 President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NE-2 President | Dem 92% | Dem | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2024 NE-3 President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NH President | Dem 89% | Dem | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 2024 NJ President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NM President | Dem 93% | Dem | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2024 NV President | Dem 50% | Rep | 0.253 | ✗ |
| 2024 NY President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 OH President | Rep 95% | Rep | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2024 OK President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 OR President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 PA President | Dem 50% | Rep | 0.255 | ✗ |
| 2024 RI President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 SC President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 SD President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 TX President | Rep 93% | Rep | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2024 UT President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 VA President | Dem 92% | Dem | 0.007 | ✓ |
| 2024 VT President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 WA President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 WI President | Dem 59% | Rep | 0.350 | ✗ |
| 2024 WY President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 AZ Senate | Dem 78% | Dem | 0.050 | ✓ |
| 2024 CA Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 FL Senate | Rep 84% | Rep | 0.027 | ✓ |
| 2024 MA Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 MD Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 MI Senate | Dem 76% | Dem | 0.059 | ✓ |
| 2024 MN Senate | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 MO Senate | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 MT Senate | Rep 93% | Rep | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2024 NJ Senate | Dem 97% | Dem | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2024 NM Senate | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NV Senate | Dem 85% | Dem | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 OH Senate | Rep 59% | Rep | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 2024 PA Senate | Dem 72% | Rep | 0.518 | ✗ |
| 2024 RI Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 TX Senate | Rep 84% | Rep | 0.025 | ✓ |
| 2024 UT Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 VA Senate | Dem 97% | Dem | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2024 WA Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 WI Senate | Dem 68% | Dem | 0.100 | ✓ |
| 2024 WY Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 AK Governor | Rep 95% | Rep | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2022 AL Governor | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 AR Governor | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 AZ Governor | Rep 64% | Dem | 0.407 | ✗ |
| 2022 CA Governor | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 CO Governor | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 CT Governor | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL Governor | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 GA Governor | Rep 93% | Rep | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2022 IA Governor | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 IL Governor | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 KS Governor | Dem 77% | Dem | 0.052 | ✓ |
| 2022 MA Governor | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 MD Governor | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 ME Governor | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 MI Governor | Dem 85% | Dem | 0.022 | ✓ |
| 2022 MN Governor | Dem 93% | Dem | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2022 NE Governor | Rep 96% | Rep | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2022 NH Governor | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 NM Governor | Dem 85% | Dem | 0.024 | ✓ |
| 2022 NV Governor | Rep 55% | Rep | 0.198 | ✓ |
| 2022 NY Governor | Dem 93% | Dem | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2022 OH Governor | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 OK Governor | Rep 87% | Rep | 0.018 | ✓ |
| 2022 OR Governor | Dem 65% | Dem | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 2022 PA Governor | Dem 97% | Dem | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2022 RI Governor | Dem 97% | Dem | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2022 SD Governor | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 TN Governor | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 TX Governor | Rep 94% | Rep | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2022 VT Governor | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 WI Governor | Dem 57% | Dem | 0.186 | ✓ |
| 2022 WY Governor | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 AK-1 House | Even | Dem | 0.250 | — |
| 2022 CA-21 House | Dem 96% | Dem | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2022 CA-26 House | Dem 96% | Dem | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2022 CA-27 House | Rep 63% | Rep | 0.137 | ✓ |
| 2022 CA-41 House | Rep 95% | Rep | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2022 CA-49 House | Dem 82% | Dem | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 2022 CO-3 House | Rep 97% | Rep | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2022 CO-8 House | Rep 91% | Dem | 0.828 | ✗ |
| 2022 CT-2 House | Dem 97% | Dem | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2022 CT-4 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 CT-5 House | Dem 61% | Dem | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 2022 DE-1 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-13 House | Rep 93% | Rep | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-15 House | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-2 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-27 House | Rep 92% | Rep | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-28 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-4 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 GA-2 House | Dem 91% | Dem | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2022 IA-3 House | Rep 58% | Rep | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 2022 IL-10 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 IL-17 House | Dem 62% | Dem | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 2022 KS-2 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 KS-3 House | Dem 84% | Dem | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2022 MD-1 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 MD-2 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 MD-6 House | Dem 71% | Dem | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 2022 ME-1 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 ME-2 House | Dem 67% | Dem | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 2022 MI-10 House | Rep 79% | Rep | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 2022 MI-7 House | Dem 65% | Dem | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 2022 MI-8 House | Dem 83% | Dem | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 2022 MN-1 House | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 MN-2 House | Dem 80% | Dem | 0.040 | ✓ |
| 2022 MT-1 House | Rep 94% | Rep | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2022 MT-2 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 NC-1 House | Dem 96% | Dem | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2022 NC-13 House | Rep 77% | Dem | 0.593 | ✗ |
| 2022 NH-1 House | Dem 67% | Dem | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 2022 NH-2 House | Dem 93% | Dem | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2022 NJ-7 House | Rep 72% | Rep | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 2022 NM-1 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 NM-2 House | Rep 78% | Dem | 0.608 | ✗ |
| 2022 NM-3 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 NV-1 House | Dem 53% | Dem | 0.221 | ✓ |
| 2022 NV-2 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 NV-3 House | Dem 61% | Dem | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 2022 NV-4 House | Dem 83% | Dem | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 2022 NY-11 House | Rep 97% | Rep | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2022 NY-17 House | Dem 70% | Rep | 0.490 | ✗ |
| 2022 NY-19 House | Dem 58% | Rep | 0.336 | ✗ |
| 2022 NY-22 House | Rep 64% | Rep | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 2022 NY-25 House | Dem 96% | Dem | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2022 OH-1 House | Rep 84% | Dem | 0.706 | ✗ |
| 2022 OH-13 House | Rep 81% | Dem | 0.656 | ✗ |
| 2022 OR-4 House | Dem 88% | Dem | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 2022 OR-6 House | Dem 72% | Dem | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 2022 PA-12 House | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 PA-17 House | Dem 54% | Dem | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 2022 PA-7 House | Rep 56% | Dem | 0.314 | ✗ |
| 2022 PA-8 House | Dem 59% | Dem | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 2022 RI-2 House | Dem 54% | Dem | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 2022 TX-15 House | Dem 54% | Rep | 0.292 | ✗ |
| 2022 VA-10 House | Dem 93% | Dem | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2022 VA-2 House | Rep 52% | Rep | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 2022 VA-7 House | Dem 72% | Dem | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 2022 VT-1 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 WA-3 House | Rep 98% | Dem | 0.960 | ✗ |
| 2022 WY-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 AL Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 AR Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 AZ Senate | Dem 66% | Dem | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 2022 CA Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 CO Senate | Dem 91% | Dem | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2022 CT Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL Senate | Rep 95% | Rep | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2022 GA Senate | Rep 63% | Dem | 0.397 | ✗ |
| 2022 IA Senate | Rep 97% | Rep | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2022 IL Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 IN Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 KS Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 MD Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 MO Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 NC Senate | Rep 82% | Rep | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 2022 NH Senate | Dem 72% | Dem | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 2022 NV Senate | Rep 51% | Dem | 0.260 | ✗ |
| 2022 NY Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 OH Senate | Rep 87% | Rep | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 2022 OK Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 OR Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 PA Senate | Rep 57% | Dem | 0.325 | ✗ |
| 2022 SD Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 VT Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 WA Senate | Dem 92% | Dem | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2022 WI Senate | Rep 81% | Rep | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 2020 AK-1 House | Rep 79% | Rep | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 2020 AR-2 House | Rep 66% | Rep | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 2020 AZ-6 House | Rep 57% | Rep | 0.185 | ✓ |
| 2020 CA-1 House | Rep 95% | Rep | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2020 CA-21 House | Dem 58% | Rep | 0.336 | ✗ |
| 2020 CA-22 House | Rep 97% | Rep | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2020 CA-25 House | Dem 55% | Rep | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 2020 CA-39 House | Dem 74% | Rep | 0.548 | ✗ |
| 2020 CA-4 House | Rep 95% | Rep | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2020 CA-49 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 CA-50 House | Rep 95% | Rep | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2020 CO-3 House | Rep 61% | Rep | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 2020 DE-1 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 FL-13 House | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 FL-15 House | Rep 81% | Rep | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 2020 FL-16 House | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2020 FL-18 House | Rep 93% | Rep | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2020 FL-21 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 FL-27 House | Dem 81% | Rep | 0.656 | ✗ |
| 2020 FL-4 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 IA-1 House | Dem 87% | Rep | 0.757 | ✗ |
| 2020 IA-2 House | Dem 88% | Rep | 0.774 | ✗ |
| 2020 IA-3 House | Dem 84% | Dem | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2020 IA-4 House | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 IL-13 House | Rep 63% | Rep | 0.137 | ✓ |
| 2020 IL-17 House | Dem 96% | Dem | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2020 IL-3 House | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 IL-6 House | Dem 87% | Dem | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 2020 IN-5 House | Even | Rep | 0.250 | — |
| 2020 KS-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 KS-2 House | Rep 91% | Rep | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2020 KS-3 House | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 KS-4 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 ME-1 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 ME-2 House | Dem 96% | Dem | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2020 MI-3 House | Rep 56% | Rep | 0.194 | ✓ |
| 2020 MN-1 House | Rep 60% | Rep | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 2020 MN-2 House | Dem 93% | Dem | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2020 MO-2 House | Rep 69% | Rep | 0.096 | ✓ |
| 2020 MT-1 House | Rep 78% | Rep | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 2020 NC-11 House | Rep 73% | Rep | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 2020 NC-8 House | Rep 66% | Rep | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 2020 NC-9 House | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2020 NE-2 House | Rep 61% | Rep | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 2020 NH-1 House | Dem 84% | Dem | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2020 NH-2 House | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NJ-2 House | Even | Rep | 0.250 | — |
| 2020 NM-1 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NM-2 House | Dem 55% | Rep | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 2020 NM-3 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NY-1 House | Rep 86% | Rep | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2020 NY-11 House | Dem 58% | Rep | 0.336 | ✗ |
| 2020 NY-18 House | Dem 96% | Dem | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2020 NY-22 House | Dem 73% | Rep | 0.533 | ✗ |
| 2020 NY-23 House | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NY-24 House | Rep 64% | Rep | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 2020 OH-1 House | Rep 58% | Rep | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 2020 OH-10 House | Rep 91% | Rep | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2020 OH-12 House | Rep 94% | Rep | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2020 OK-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 OK-5 House | Dem 51% | Rep | 0.260 | ✗ |
| 2020 PA-1 House | Rep 84% | Rep | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2020 PA-10 House | Rep 52% | Rep | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 2020 PA-7 House | Dem 97% | Dem | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2020 PA-8 House | Dem 92% | Dem | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2020 SC-1 House | Dem 64% | Rep | 0.410 | ✗ |
| 2020 TX-10 House | Rep 92% | Rep | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2020 TX-21 House | Rep 71% | Rep | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 2020 TX-22 House | Rep 68% | Rep | 0.102 | ✓ |
| 2020 TX-23 House | Dem 74% | Rep | 0.548 | ✗ |
| 2020 TX-25 House | Rep 89% | Rep | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 2020 TX-3 House | Rep 91% | Rep | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2020 TX-6 House | Rep 92% | Rep | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2020 TX-7 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2020 UT-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 UT-2 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 UT-3 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 UT-4 House | Dem 56% | Rep | 0.314 | ✗ |
| 2020 VA-10 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 VA-2 House | Dem 87% | Dem | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 2020 VA-5 House | Rep 51% | Rep | 0.240 | ✓ |
| 2020 VA-7 House | Dem 79% | Dem | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 2020 VT-1 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 WA-3 House | Rep 82% | Rep | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 2020 WY-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 AK President | Rep 85% | Rep | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 2020 AL President | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 AR President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 AZ President | Dem 68% | Dem | 0.102 | ✓ |
| 2020 CA President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 CO President | Dem 97% | Dem | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2020 CT President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 DC President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 DE President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 FL President | Dem 69% | Rep | 0.476 | ✗ |
| 2020 GA President | Dem 58% | Dem | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 2020 HI President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 IA President | Rep 60% | Rep | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 2020 ID President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 IL President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 IN President | Rep 96% | Rep | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2020 KS President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 KY President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 LA President | Rep 97% | Rep | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2020 MA President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 MD President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 ME President | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2020 MI President | Dem 95% | Dem | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2020 MN President | Dem 96% | Dem | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2020 MO President | Rep 94% | Rep | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2020 MS President | Rep 92% | Rep | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2020 MT President | Rep 82% | Rep | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 2020 NC President | Dem 64% | Rep | 0.410 | ✗ |
| 2020 ND President | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NE President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NH President | Dem 89% | Dem | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 2020 NJ President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NM President | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NV President | Dem 88% | Dem | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 2020 NY President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 OH President | Rep 55% | Rep | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 2020 OK President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 OR President | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 PA President | Dem 84% | Dem | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2020 RI President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 SC President | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2020 SD President | Rep 95% | Rep | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2020 TN President | Rep 97% | Rep | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2020 TX President | Rep 62% | Rep | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 2020 UT President | Rep 95% | Rep | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2020 VA President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 VT President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 WA President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 WI President | Dem 94% | Dem | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2020 WV President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 WY President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 AK Senate | Rep 77% | Rep | 0.053 | ✓ |
| 2020 AL Senate | Rep 87% | Rep | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 2020 CO Senate | Dem 84% | Dem | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2020 DE Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 GA Senate | Rep 57% | Rep | 0.185 | ✓ |
| 2020 IA Senate | Rep 58% | Rep | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 2020 IL Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 KS Senate | Rep 80% | Rep | 0.040 | ✓ |
| 2020 KY Senate | Rep 96% | Rep | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2020 MA Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 ME Senate | Dem 59% | Rep | 0.348 | ✗ |
| 2020 MI Senate | Dem 83% | Dem | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 2020 MN Senate | Dem 94% | Dem | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2020 MS Senate | Rep 88% | Rep | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 2020 MT Senate | Rep 69% | Rep | 0.096 | ✓ |
| 2020 NC Senate | Dem 68% | Rep | 0.462 | ✗ |
| 2020 NE Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NH Senate | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NJ Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NM Senate | Dem 94% | Dem | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2020 OK Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 OR Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 SC Senate | Rep 77% | Rep | 0.053 | ✓ |
| 2020 SD Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 TN Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 TX Senate | Rep 86% | Rep | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2020 VA Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 WV Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 WY Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 AK Governor | Rep 69% | Rep | 0.097 | ✓ |
| 2018 AL Governor | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 AR Governor | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 AZ Governor | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 CA Governor | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 CO Governor | Dem 95% | Dem | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2018 CT Governor | Dem 79% | Dem | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 2018 FL Governor | Dem 77% | Rep | 0.596 | ✗ |
| 2018 GA Governor | Rep 68% | Rep | 0.104 | ✓ |
| 2018 HI Governor | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 IA Governor | Dem 57% | Rep | 0.329 | ✗ |
| 2018 ID Governor | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 IL Governor | Dem 84% | Dem | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2018 KS Governor | Rep 57% | Dem | 0.327 | ✗ |
| 2018 MA Governor | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 MD Governor | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 ME Governor | Dem 95% | Dem | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2018 MI Governor | Dem 93% | Dem | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2018 MN Governor | Dem 93% | Dem | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2018 NH Governor | Rep 86% | Rep | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2018 NM Governor | Dem 94% | Dem | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2018 NV Governor | Dem 52% | Dem | 0.235 | ✓ |
| 2018 NY Governor | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 OH Governor | Dem 60% | Rep | 0.354 | ✗ |
| 2018 OK Governor | Rep 86% | Rep | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2018 OR Governor | Dem 82% | Dem | 0.031 | ✓ |
| 2018 PA Governor | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 RI Governor | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 SC Governor | Rep 97% | Rep | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2018 SD Governor | Rep 63% | Rep | 0.136 | ✓ |
| 2018 TN Governor | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2018 TX Governor | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 VT Governor | Rep 94% | Rep | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2018 WI Governor | Dem 60% | Dem | 0.163 | ✓ |
| 2018 WY Governor | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 AK-1 House | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2018 AR-2 House | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2018 AZ-1 House | Dem 91% | Dem | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2018 AZ-2 House | Dem 96% | Dem | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2018 AZ-4 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 AZ-6 House | Rep 95% | Rep | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2018 AZ-8 House | Rep 87% | Rep | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 2018 CA-10 House | Dem 74% | Dem | 0.068 | ✓ |
| 2018 CA-16 House | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 CA-21 House | Rep 84% | Dem | 0.706 | ✗ |
| 2018 CA-22 House | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 CA-25 House | Dem 56% | Dem | 0.194 | ✓ |
| 2018 CA-39 House | Dem 52% | Dem | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 2018 CA-4 House | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2018 CA-45 House | Dem 65% | Dem | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 2018 CA-48 House | Dem 63% | Dem | 0.137 | ✓ |
| 2018 CA-49 House | Dem 97% | Dem | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2018 CA-50 House | Rep 82% | Rep | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 2018 CO-3 House | Rep 89% | Rep | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 2018 CO-6 House | Dem 88% | Dem | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 2018 DE-1 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 FL-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 FL-15 House | Rep 64% | Rep | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 2018 FL-16 House | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2018 FL-18 House | Rep 92% | Rep | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2018 FL-19 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 FL-25 House | Rep 84% | Rep | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2018 FL-26 House | Even | Dem | 0.250 | — |
| 2018 FL-27 House | Dem 85% | Dem | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 2018 FL-6 House | Rep 78% | Rep | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 2018 FL-9 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 GA-3 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 GA-6 House | Rep 59% | Dem | 0.348 | ✗ |
| 2018 GA-7 House | Rep 85% | Rep | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 2018 IA-1 House | Dem 94% | Dem | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2018 IA-2 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 IA-3 House | Dem 70% | Dem | 0.090 | ✓ |
| 2018 IA-4 House | Rep 89% | Rep | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 2018 IL-12 House | Rep 76% | Rep | 0.058 | ✓ |
| 2018 IL-13 House | Rep 77% | Rep | 0.053 | ✓ |
| 2018 IL-14 House | Dem 69% | Dem | 0.096 | ✓ |
| 2018 IL-16 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 IL-6 House | Dem 62% | Dem | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 2018 IN-5 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 IN-9 House | Rep 95% | Rep | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2018 KS-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 KS-2 House | Dem 64% | Rep | 0.410 | ✗ |
| 2018 KS-3 House | Dem 86% | Dem | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2018 KS-4 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 KY-6 House | Rep 57% | Rep | 0.185 | ✓ |
| 2018 ME-1 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 ME-2 House | Dem 64% | Dem | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 2018 MI-1 House | Rep 96% | Rep | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2018 MI-11 House | Dem 82% | Dem | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 2018 MI-2 House | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 MI-6 House | Rep 83% | Rep | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 2018 MI-8 House | Dem 71% | Dem | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 2018 MN-1 House | Dem 60% | Rep | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 2018 MN-2 House | Dem 87% | Dem | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 2018 MN-3 House | Dem 86% | Dem | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2018 MN-7 House | Dem 96% | Dem | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2018 MN-8 House | Rep 82% | Rep | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 2018 MT-1 House | Rep 82% | Rep | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 2018 NC-13 House | Rep 65% | Rep | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 2018 NC-2 House | Rep 86% | Rep | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2018 ND-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 NE-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 NE-2 House | Rep 68% | Rep | 0.102 | ✓ |
| 2018 NH-1 House | Dem 92% | Dem | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2018 NH-2 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 NJ-11 House | Dem 86% | Dem | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2018 NJ-2 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 NJ-3 House | Dem 63% | Dem | 0.137 | ✓ |
| 2018 NJ-5 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 NJ-7 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2018 NM-1 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 NM-2 House | Dem 52% | Dem | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 2018 NM-3 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 NV-1 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 NV-2 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 NV-3 House | Dem 88% | Dem | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 2018 NV-4 House | Dem 89% | Dem | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 2018 NY-1 House | Rep 96% | Rep | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2018 NY-11 House | Rep 80% | Dem | 0.640 | ✗ |
| 2018 NY-19 House | Dem 67% | Dem | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 2018 NY-21 House | Rep 94% | Rep | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2018 NY-22 House | Dem 60% | Dem | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 2018 NY-23 House | Rep 92% | Rep | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2018 NY-24 House | Rep 84% | Rep | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2018 NY-25 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 NY-27 House | Rep 80% | Rep | 0.040 | ✓ |
| 2018 OH-1 House | Rep 82% | Rep | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 2018 OH-12 House | Rep 65% | Rep | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 2018 OH-16 House | Rep 97% | Rep | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2018 OH-2 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 OH-4 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 OH-7 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 OK-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 OK-2 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 OK-3 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 OK-4 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 OK-5 House | Rep 93% | Dem | 0.865 | ✗ |
| 2018 OR-2 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 OR-5 House | Dem 94% | Dem | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2018 PA-1 House | Rep 59% | Rep | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 2018 PA-10 House | Rep 71% | Rep | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 2018 PA-11 House | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 PA-13 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 PA-16 House | Rep 89% | Rep | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 2018 PA-17 House | Dem 96% | Dem | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2018 PA-18 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 PA-7 House | Dem 94% | Dem | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2018 PA-8 House | Dem 97% | Dem | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2018 PA-9 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 SD-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 TX-12 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 TX-2 House | Rep 95% | Rep | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2018 TX-21 House | Rep 91% | Rep | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2018 TX-23 House | Rep 79% | Rep | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 2018 TX-31 House | Rep 95% | Rep | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2018 TX-32 House | Rep 54% | Dem | 0.292 | ✗ |
| 2018 TX-7 House | Rep 55% | Dem | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 2018 UT-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 UT-2 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 UT-3 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 UT-4 House | Dem 64% | Dem | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 2018 VA-10 House | Dem 89% | Dem | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 2018 VA-2 House | Rep 59% | Dem | 0.348 | ✗ |
| 2018 VA-5 House | Rep 70% | Rep | 0.090 | ✓ |
| 2018 VA-7 House | Dem 52% | Dem | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 2018 VT-1 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 WA-3 House | Rep 81% | Rep | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 2018 WA-5 House | Rep 82% | Rep | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 2018 WA-8 House | Dem 71% | Dem | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 2018 WI-1 House | Rep 81% | Rep | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 2018 WI-6 House | Rep 97% | Rep | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2018 WV-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 WV-2 House | Rep 97% | Rep | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2018 WV-3 House | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2018 WY-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 AZ Senate | Dem 67% | Dem | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 2018 CT Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 DE Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 FL Senate | Dem 73% | Rep | 0.533 | ✗ |
| 2018 IN Senate | Dem 62% | Rep | 0.384 | ✗ |
| 2018 MA Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 MD Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 ME Senate | Dem 99% | Rep | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 2018 MI Senate | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 MN Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 MO Senate | Rep 53% | Rep | 0.221 | ✓ |
| 2018 MS Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 MT Senate | Dem 76% | Dem | 0.058 | ✓ |
| 2018 ND Senate | Rep 77% | Rep | 0.053 | ✓ |
| 2018 NE Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 NJ Senate | Dem 94% | Dem | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2018 NM Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 NV Senate | Dem 64% | Dem | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 2018 NY Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 OH Senate | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 PA Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 RI Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 TN Senate | Rep 80% | Rep | 0.040 | ✓ |
| 2018 TX Senate | Rep 81% | Rep | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 2018 UT Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 VA Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 WA Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 WI Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 WV Senate | Dem 87% | Dem | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 2018 WY Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 AK President | Rep 79% | Rep | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 2016 AL President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 AR President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 AZ President | Rep 67% | Rep | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 2016 CA President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 CO President | Dem 78% | Dem | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 2016 CT President | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 DC President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 DE President | Dem 92% | Dem | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2016 FL President | Dem 55% | Rep | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 2016 GA President | Rep 81% | Rep | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 2016 HI President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 IA President | Rep 69% | Rep | 0.096 | ✓ |
| 2016 ID President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 IL President | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 IN President | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 KS President | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 KY President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 LA President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 MA President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 MD President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 ME President | Dem 84% | Dem | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2016 MI President | Dem 80% | Rep | 0.640 | ✗ |
| 2016 MN President | Dem 85% | Dem | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 2016 MO President | Rep 97% | Rep | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2016 MS President | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 MT President | Rep 96% | Rep | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2016 NC President | Dem 55% | Rep | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 2016 ND President | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 NE President | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 NH President | Dem 70% | Dem | 0.090 | ✓ |
| 2016 NJ President | Dem 97% | Dem | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2016 NM President | Dem 84% | Dem | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2016 NV President | Dem 59% | Dem | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 2016 NY President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 OH President | Rep 64% | Rep | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 2016 OK President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 OR President | Dem 94% | Dem | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2016 PA President | Dem 77% | Rep | 0.593 | ✗ |
| 2016 RI President | Dem 95% | Dem | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2016 SC President | Rep 91% | Rep | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2016 SD President | Rep 95% | Rep | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2016 TN President | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 TX President | Rep 95% | Rep | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2016 UT President | Rep 84% | Rep | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2016 VA President | Dem 86% | Dem | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2016 VT President | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 WA President | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 WI President | Dem 84% | Rep | 0.706 | ✗ |
| 2016 WV President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 WY President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 AK Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 AL Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 AR Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 AZ Senate | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 CO Senate | Dem 95% | Dem | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2016 CT Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 FL Senate | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2016 GA Senate | Rep 97% | Rep | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2016 HI Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 IA Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 ID Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 IL Senate | Dem 97% | Dem | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2016 IN Senate | Rep 69% | Rep | 0.096 | ✓ |
| 2016 KS Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 KY Senate | Rep 94% | Rep | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2016 LA Senate | Rep 86% | Rep | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2016 MD Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 MO Senate | Rep 57% | Rep | 0.185 | ✓ |
| 2016 NC Senate | Rep 73% | Rep | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 2016 ND Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 NH Senate | Dem 53% | Dem | 0.221 | ✓ |
| 2016 NV Senate | Dem 60% | Dem | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 2016 NY Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 OH Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 OK Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 OR Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 PA Senate | Dem 62% | Rep | 0.384 | ✗ |
| 2016 SC Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 SD Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 UT Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 VT Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 WA Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2016 WI Senate | Dem 82% | Rep | 0.672 | ✗ |
By office
| Office | Races | Brier | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | 68 | 0.053 | 93% |
| House | 333 | 0.091 | 89% |
| Senate | 140 | 0.058 | 92% |
By cycle
| Year | Races | Brier | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 84 | 0.062 | 92% |
| 2018 | 205 | 0.069 | 92% |
| 2020 | 165 | 0.077 | 90% |
| 2022 | 129 | 0.087 | 89% |
| 2024 | 100 | 0.057 | 92% |
Why no “time to election” curve? Unlike pollsters — where we have every poll with its field dates — our forecaster archive (JHK Forecasts) stores only each outfit's final pre-election forecast per race, not its earlier snapshots. So a lead-time breakdown genuinely isn't in the data for forecasters. Pollster pages do show it (e.g. the leaderboard).