JHK Forecasts

Forecaster quality, broken out by office and by cycle. Scored on the Brier score of its final pre-election win probability (lower is better), over 402 races, 2016–2024.

Overall Brier

0.090

Races scored

402

Head-to-head vs the VotePredictor model

Apples-to-apples: on the 402 races JHK Forecasts forecast, its win-probability Brier vs VotePredictor's calibrated win-prob on those same races.

Model	Brier	Called right
JHK Forecasts	0.090	87%
VotePredictor	0.086	88%

Every race (402)

Each race JHK Forecasts scored, with its final pre-election call vs who actually won, and the Brier score for that call. Click a race for its full detail.

Race	Their call	Winner	Brier	Called
2024 AK-1 House	Dem 82%	Rep	0.669	✗
2024 AL-2 House	Dem 84%	Dem	0.026	✓
2024 CA-22 House	Dem 59%	Rep	0.350	✗
2024 CA-47 House	Dem 83%	Dem	0.030	✓
2024 CA-49 House	Dem 97%	Dem	0.001	✓
2024 CA-51 House	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 CO-8 House	Dem 78%	Rep	0.613	✗
2024 CT-5 House	Dem 84%	Dem	0.025	✓
2024 FL-13 House	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2024 FL-4 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 GA-2 House	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 IA-1 House	Rep 75%	Rep	0.063	✓
2024 IA-2 House	Rep 93%	Rep	0.006	✓
2024 IA-3 House	Rep 67%	Rep	0.112	✓
2024 IA-4 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 IL-17 House	Dem 93%	Dem	0.006	✓
2024 ME-1 House	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 ME-2 House	Dem 86%	Dem	0.020	✓
2024 MI-10 House	Rep 98%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 MI-7 House	Rep 61%	Rep	0.153	✓
2024 MT-1 House	Rep 87%	Rep	0.016	✓
2024 NE-1 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 NE-2 House	Dem 65%	Rep	0.420	✗
2024 NE-3 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 NH-1 House	Dem 98%	Dem	0.001	✓
2024 NH-2 House	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 NY-1 House	Rep 95%	Rep	0.003	✓
2024 NY-17 House	Rep 72%	Rep	0.081	✓
2024 NY-18 House	Dem 95%	Dem	0.002	✓
2024 NY-22 House	Dem 54%	Dem	0.208	✓
2024 NY-3 House	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 NY-4 House	Dem 60%	Dem	0.161	✓
2024 OH-13 House	Dem 89%	Dem	0.012	✓
2024 PA-8 House	Dem 74%	Rep	0.553	✗
2024 SD-1 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 VA-2 House	Rep 89%	Rep	0.013	✓
2024 VA-7 House	Dem 86%	Dem	0.019	✓
2024 VT-1 House	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 AK President	Rep 98%	Rep	0.001	✓
2024 AZ President	Rep 68%	Rep	0.104	✓
2024 CA President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 CO President	Dem 95%	Dem	0.002	✓
2024 FL President	Rep 91%	Rep	0.009	✓
2024 GA President	Rep 62%	Rep	0.146	✓
2024 IA President	Rep 83%	Rep	0.028	✓
2024 MA President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 MD President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 ME President	Dem 92%	Dem	0.007	✓
2024 ME-1 President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 ME-2 President	Rep 87%	Rep	0.018	✓
2024 MI President	Dem 61%	Rep	0.373	✗
2024 MN President	Dem 88%	Dem	0.014	✓
2024 MO President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 MT President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 NC President	Rep 63%	Rep	0.139	✓
2024 NE President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 NE-1 President	Rep 96%	Rep	0.001	✓
2024 NE-2 President	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2024 NE-3 President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 NH President	Dem 86%	Dem	0.020	✓
2024 NJ President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 NM President	Dem 89%	Dem	0.012	✓
2024 NV President	Rep 52%	Rep	0.229	✓
2024 NY President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 OH President	Rep 95%	Rep	0.003	✓
2024 OK President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 OR President	Dem 97%	Dem	0.001	✓
2024 PA President	Rep 51%	Rep	0.244	✓
2024 RI President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 SC President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 SD President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 TX President	Rep 93%	Rep	0.005	✓
2024 UT President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 VA President	Dem 90%	Dem	0.011	✓
2024 VT President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 WA President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 WI President	Dem 56%	Rep	0.319	✗
2024 WY President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 AZ Senate	Dem 83%	Dem	0.029	✓
2024 CA Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 FL Senate	Rep 84%	Rep	0.026	✓
2024 MA Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 MD Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 ME Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 MI Senate	Dem 80%	Dem	0.042	✓
2024 MN Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 MO Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 MT Senate	Rep 78%	Rep	0.047	✓
2024 NE Senate	Rep 83%	Rep	0.028	✓
2024 NJ Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 NM Senate	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 NV Senate	Dem 90%	Dem	0.010	✓
2024 NY Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 OH Senate	Dem 57%	Rep	0.322	✗
2024 PA Senate	Dem 73%	Rep	0.531	✗
2024 RI Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 TX Senate	Rep 78%	Rep	0.050	✓
2024 UT Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2024 VA Senate	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 VT Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 WA Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2024 WI Senate	Dem 72%	Dem	0.080	✓
2024 WY Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 AK-1 House	Dem 91%	Dem	0.008	✓
2022 CA-21 House	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 CA-26 House	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 CA-27 House	Rep 71%	Rep	0.084	✓
2022 CA-41 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 CA-49 House	Dem 75%	Dem	0.062	✓
2022 CO-3 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 CO-8 House	Rep 75%	Dem	0.562	✗
2022 CT-2 House	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 CT-4 House	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 CT-5 House	Dem 60%	Dem	0.160	✓
2022 DE-1 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 FL-1 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 FL-13 House	Rep 87%	Rep	0.017	✓
2022 FL-15 House	Rep 95%	Rep	0.003	✓
2022 FL-2 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 FL-27 House	Rep 98%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 FL-28 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 FL-4 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 GA-2 House	Dem 95%	Dem	0.003	✓
2022 IA-3 House	Rep 62%	Rep	0.144	✓
2022 IL-10 House	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 IL-17 House	Rep 52%	Dem	0.270	✗
2022 KS-2 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 KS-3 House	Dem 86%	Dem	0.020	✓
2022 MD-1 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 MD-2 House	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 MD-6 House	Dem 87%	Dem	0.017	✓
2022 ME-1 House	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 ME-2 House	Dem 60%	Dem	0.160	✓
2022 MI-10 House	Rep 95%	Rep	0.003	✓
2022 MI-7 House	Dem 54%	Dem	0.212	✓
2022 MI-8 House	Dem 74%	Dem	0.068	✓
2022 MN-1 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 MN-2 House	Dem 54%	Dem	0.212	✓
2022 MT-1 House	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 MT-2 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 NC-1 House	Dem 78%	Dem	0.048	✓
2022 NC-13 House	Rep 61%	Dem	0.372	✗
2022 ND-1 House	Rep 100%	Dem	1.000	✗
2022 NH-1 House	Rep 51%	Dem	0.260	✗
2022 NH-2 House	Dem 88%	Dem	0.014	✓
2022 NJ-7 House	Rep 86%	Rep	0.020	✓
2022 NM-1 House	Dem 94%	Dem	0.004	✓
2022 NM-2 House	Rep 72%	Dem	0.518	✗
2022 NM-3 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 NV-1 House	Rep 63%	Dem	0.397	✗
2022 NV-2 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 NV-3 House	Rep 52%	Dem	0.270	✗
2022 NV-4 House	Dem 81%	Dem	0.036	✓
2022 NY-11 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 NY-17 House	Dem 94%	Dem	0.004	✓
2022 NY-19 House	Dem 52%	Dem	0.230	✓
2022 NY-22 House	Dem 55%	Dem	0.202	✓
2022 NY-25 House	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 OH-1 House	Rep 65%	Dem	0.423	✗
2022 OH-13 House	Rep 53%	Dem	0.281	✗
2022 OR-4 House	Dem 66%	Dem	0.116	✓
2022 OR-6 House	Dem 62%	Dem	0.144	✓
2022 PA-12 House	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 PA-17 House	Rep 64%	Dem	0.410	✗
2022 PA-7 House	Rep 68%	Dem	0.462	✗
2022 PA-8 House	Even	Dem	0.250	—
2022 RI-2 House	Rep 61%	Dem	0.372	✗
2022 SD-1 House	Rep 100%	Dem	1.000	✗
2022 TX-15 House	Rep 93%	Rep	0.005	✓
2022 VA-10 House	Dem 95%	Dem	0.003	✓
2022 VA-2 House	Rep 62%	Rep	0.144	✓
2022 VA-7 House	Dem 68%	Dem	0.102	✓
2022 VT-1 House	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 WA-3 House	Rep 99%	Dem	0.980	✗
2022 WY-1 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 AK Senate	Rep 100%	Dem	1.000	✗
2022 AL Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 AR Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 AZ Senate	Dem 65%	Dem	0.122	✓
2022 CA Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 CO Senate	Dem 92%	Dem	0.006	✓
2022 CT Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 FL Senate	Rep 97%	Rep	0.001	✓
2022 GA Senate	Rep 55%	Dem	0.303	✗
2022 IA Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 IL Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 IN Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 KS Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 MD Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 MO Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 NC Senate	Rep 81%	Rep	0.036	✓
2022 NH Senate	Dem 72%	Dem	0.078	✓
2022 NV Senate	Rep 60%	Dem	0.360	✗
2022 NY Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 OH Senate	Rep 92%	Rep	0.006	✓
2022 OK Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 OR Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 PA Senate	Rep 52%	Dem	0.270	✗
2022 SD Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2022 UT Senate	Rep 99%	Dem	0.980	✗
2022 VT Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2022 WA Senate	Dem 94%	Dem	0.004	✓
2022 WI Senate	Rep 80%	Rep	0.040	✓
2020 AK-1 House	Rep 78%	Rep	0.048	✓
2020 AR-2 House	Rep 73%	Rep	0.073	✓
2020 AZ-6 House	Rep 70%	Rep	0.090	✓
2020 CA-1 House	Rep 97%	Rep	0.001	✓
2020 CA-21 House	Dem 76%	Rep	0.578	✗
2020 CA-22 House	Rep 93%	Rep	0.005	✓
2020 CA-25 House	Dem 53%	Rep	0.281	✗
2020 CA-39 House	Dem 83%	Rep	0.689	✗
2020 CA-4 House	Rep 93%	Rep	0.005	✓
2020 CA-49 House	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 CA-50 House	Rep 84%	Rep	0.026	✓
2020 CA-53 House	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 CO-3 House	Rep 73%	Rep	0.073	✓
2020 DE-1 House	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 FL-13 House	Dem 97%	Dem	0.001	✓
2020 FL-15 House	Rep 79%	Rep	0.044	✓
2020 FL-16 House	Rep 91%	Rep	0.008	✓
2020 FL-18 House	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2020 FL-21 House	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 FL-27 House	Dem 92%	Rep	0.846	✗
2020 FL-4 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 IA-1 House	Dem 82%	Rep	0.672	✗
2020 IA-2 House	Dem 74%	Rep	0.548	✗
2020 IA-3 House	Dem 67%	Dem	0.109	✓
2020 IA-4 House	Rep 96%	Rep	0.002	✓
2020 IL-13 House	Rep 65%	Rep	0.122	✓
2020 IL-17 House	Dem 95%	Dem	0.003	✓
2020 IL-3 House	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 IL-6 House	Dem 96%	Dem	0.002	✓
2020 IN-5 House	Rep 59%	Rep	0.168	✓
2020 KS-1 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 KS-2 House	Rep 85%	Rep	0.023	✓
2020 KS-3 House	Dem 91%	Dem	0.008	✓
2020 KS-4 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 ME-1 House	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 ME-2 House	Dem 92%	Dem	0.006	✓
2020 MI-3 House	Rep 64%	Rep	0.130	✓
2020 MN-1 House	Rep 72%	Rep	0.078	✓
2020 MN-2 House	Dem 91%	Dem	0.008	✓
2020 MO-2 House	Rep 71%	Rep	0.084	✓
2020 MT-1 House	Rep 63%	Rep	0.137	✓
2020 NC-11 House	Rep 83%	Rep	0.029	✓
2020 NC-8 House	Rep 71%	Rep	0.084	✓
2020 NC-9 House	Rep 87%	Rep	0.017	✓
2020 NE-2 House	Rep 61%	Rep	0.152	✓
2020 NH-1 House	Dem 86%	Dem	0.020	✓
2020 NH-2 House	Dem 97%	Dem	0.001	✓
2020 NJ-2 House	Dem 56%	Rep	0.314	✗
2020 NM-1 House	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 NM-2 House	Dem 57%	Rep	0.325	✗
2020 NM-3 House	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 NY-1 House	Rep 81%	Rep	0.036	✓
2020 NY-11 House	Dem 52%	Rep	0.270	✗
2020 NY-18 House	Dem 94%	Dem	0.004	✓
2020 NY-22 House	Dem 64%	Rep	0.410	✗
2020 NY-23 House	Rep 95%	Rep	0.003	✓
2020 NY-24 House	Rep 58%	Rep	0.176	✓
2020 OH-1 House	Rep 66%	Rep	0.116	✓
2020 OH-10 House	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2020 OH-12 House	Rep 89%	Rep	0.012	✓
2020 OK-1 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 OK-5 House	Rep 53%	Rep	0.221	✓
2020 PA-1 House	Rep 73%	Rep	0.073	✓
2020 PA-10 House	Rep 61%	Rep	0.152	✓
2020 PA-7 House	Dem 94%	Dem	0.004	✓
2020 PA-8 House	Dem 82%	Dem	0.032	✓
2020 SC-1 House	Dem 66%	Rep	0.436	✗
2020 TX-10 House	Rep 81%	Rep	0.036	✓
2020 TX-21 House	Rep 68%	Rep	0.102	✓
2020 TX-22 House	Rep 62%	Rep	0.144	✓
2020 TX-23 House	Dem 73%	Rep	0.533	✗
2020 TX-25 House	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2020 TX-3 House	Rep 88%	Rep	0.014	✓
2020 TX-6 House	Rep 89%	Rep	0.012	✓
2020 TX-7 House	Dem 79%	Dem	0.044	✓
2020 UT-1 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 UT-2 House	Rep 98%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 UT-3 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 UT-4 House	Dem 54%	Rep	0.292	✗
2020 VA-10 House	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 VA-2 House	Dem 73%	Dem	0.073	✓
2020 VA-5 House	Rep 68%	Rep	0.102	✓
2020 VA-7 House	Dem 64%	Dem	0.130	✓
2020 VT-1 House	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 WA-3 House	Rep 82%	Rep	0.032	✓
2020 WY-1 House	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 AK President	Rep 87%	Rep	0.017	✓
2020 AL President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 AR President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 AZ President	Dem 73%	Dem	0.073	✓
2020 CA President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 CO President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 CT President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 DC President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 DE President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 FL President	Dem 75%	Rep	0.562	✗
2020 GA President	Dem 67%	Dem	0.109	✓
2020 HI President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 IA President	Rep 55%	Rep	0.202	✓
2020 ID President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 IL President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 IN President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 KS President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 KY President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 LA President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 MA President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 MD President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 ME President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 MI President	Dem 96%	Dem	0.002	✓
2020 MN President	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 MO President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 MS President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 MT President	Rep 94%	Rep	0.004	✓
2020 NC President	Dem 70%	Rep	0.490	✗
2020 ND President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 NE President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 NH President	Dem 97%	Dem	0.001	✓
2020 NJ President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 NM President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 NV President	Dem 92%	Dem	0.006	✓
2020 NY President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 OH President	Rep 58%	Rep	0.176	✓
2020 OK President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 OR President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 PA President	Dem 91%	Dem	0.008	✓
2020 RI President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 SC President	Rep 97%	Rep	0.001	✓
2020 SD President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 TN President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 TX President	Rep 66%	Rep	0.116	✓
2020 UT President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 VA President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 VT President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 WA President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 WI President	Dem 96%	Dem	0.002	✓
2020 WV President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 WY President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 AK Senate	Rep 95%	Rep	0.003	✓
2020 AL Senate	Rep 96%	Rep	0.002	✓
2020 AR Senate	Rep 100%	Dem	1.000	✗
2020 CO Senate	Dem 92%	Dem	0.006	✓
2020 DE Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 GA Senate	Dem 55%	Dem	0.202	✓
2020 IA Senate	Rep 52%	Rep	0.230	✓
2020 IL Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 KS Senate	Rep 86%	Rep	0.020	✓
2020 KY Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 MA Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 ME Senate	Dem 73%	Rep	0.533	✗
2020 MI Senate	Dem 94%	Dem	0.004	✓
2020 MN Senate	Dem 96%	Dem	0.002	✓
2020 MS Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 MT Senate	Rep 65%	Rep	0.122	✓
2020 NC Senate	Dem 79%	Rep	0.624	✗
2020 NE Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 NH Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 NJ Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 NM Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 OK Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 OR Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 SC Senate	Rep 81%	Rep	0.036	✓
2020 SD Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 TN Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 TX Senate	Rep 93%	Rep	0.005	✓
2020 VA Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 WV Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 WY Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2018 AZ Senate	Dem 59%	Dem	0.168	✓
2018 CA Senate	Dem 97%	Dem	0.001	✓
2018 CT Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 DE Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 FL Senate	Dem 65%	Rep	0.423	✗
2018 IN Senate	Dem 59%	Rep	0.348	✗
2018 MA Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 MD Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 ME Senate	Dem 99%	Rep	0.980	✗
2018 MI Senate	Dem 97%	Dem	0.001	✓
2018 MN Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 MO Senate	Rep 51%	Rep	0.240	✓
2018 MS Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2018 MT Senate	Dem 74%	Dem	0.068	✓
2018 ND Senate	Rep 88%	Rep	0.014	✓
2018 NE Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2018 NJ Senate	Dem 95%	Dem	0.003	✓
2018 NM Senate	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 NV Senate	Dem 56%	Dem	0.194	✓
2018 NY Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 OH Senate	Dem 97%	Dem	0.001	✓
2018 PA Senate	Dem 97%	Dem	0.001	✓
2018 RI Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 TN Senate	Rep 75%	Rep	0.062	✓
2018 TX Senate	Rep 83%	Rep	0.029	✓
2018 UT Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2018 VA Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 VT Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 WA Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2018 WI Senate	Dem 95%	Dem	0.003	✓
2018 WV Senate	Dem 68%	Dem	0.102	✓
2018 WY Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓

By office

Office	Races	Brier	Called right
House	196	0.117	83%
Senate	115	0.085	89%

By cycle

Year	Races	Brier	Called right
2018	32	0.082	91%
2020	167	0.083	89%
2022	100	0.133	80%
2024	103	0.062	91%

Why no “time to election” curve? Unlike pollsters — where we have every poll with its field dates — our forecaster archive (JHK Forecasts) stores only each outfit's final pre-election forecast per race, not its earlier snapshots. So a lead-time breakdown genuinely isn't in the data for forecasters. Pollster pages do show it (e.g. the leaderboard).