← Back to ratings
JHK Forecasts
Forecaster quality, broken out by office and by cycle. Scored on the Brier score of its final pre-election win probability (lower is better), over 391 races, 2016–2024.
Overall Brier
0.083
Races scored
391
Head-to-head vs VotePredictor Elections
Apples-to-apples: on the 391 races JHK Forecasts forecast, its win-probability Brier vs VotePredictor Elections' calibrated win-prob on those same races.
| Model | Brier | Called right |
|---|---|---|
| JHK Forecasts | 0.083 | 87% |
| VotePredictor Elections | 0.088 | 89% |
Every race (391)
Each race JHK Forecasts scored, with its final pre-election call vs who actually won, and the Brier score for that call. Click a race for its full detail.
| Race | Their call | Winner | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 AK-1 House | Dem 82% | Rep | 0.669 | ✗ |
| 2024 AL-2 House | Dem 84% | Dem | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2024 CA-22 House | Dem 59% | Rep | 0.350 | ✗ |
| 2024 CA-47 House | Dem 83% | Dem | 0.030 | ✓ |
| 2024 CA-49 House | Dem 97% | Dem | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2024 CA-51 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 CO-8 House | Dem 78% | Rep | 0.613 | ✗ |
| 2024 CT-5 House | Dem 84% | Dem | 0.025 | ✓ |
| 2024 FL-13 House | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2024 FL-4 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 GA-2 House | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 IA-1 House | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.063 | ✓ |
| 2024 IA-2 House | Rep 93% | Rep | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2024 IA-3 House | Rep 67% | Rep | 0.112 | ✓ |
| 2024 IA-4 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 IL-17 House | Dem 93% | Dem | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2024 ME-1 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 ME-2 House | Dem 86% | Dem | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2024 MI-10 House | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 MI-7 House | Rep 61% | Rep | 0.153 | ✓ |
| 2024 MT-1 House | Rep 87% | Rep | 0.016 | ✓ |
| 2024 NE-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NE-2 House | Dem 65% | Rep | 0.420 | ✗ |
| 2024 NE-3 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NH-1 House | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2024 NH-2 House | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY-1 House | Rep 95% | Rep | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY-17 House | Rep 72% | Rep | 0.081 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY-18 House | Dem 95% | Dem | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY-22 House | Dem 54% | Dem | 0.208 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY-3 House | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY-4 House | Dem 60% | Dem | 0.161 | ✓ |
| 2024 OH-13 House | Dem 89% | Dem | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 2024 PA-8 House | Dem 74% | Rep | 0.553 | ✗ |
| 2024 SD-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 VA-2 House | Rep 89% | Rep | 0.013 | ✓ |
| 2024 VA-7 House | Dem 86% | Dem | 0.019 | ✓ |
| 2024 VT-1 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 AK President | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2024 AZ President | Rep 68% | Rep | 0.104 | ✓ |
| 2024 CA President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 CO President | Dem 95% | Dem | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2024 FL President | Rep 91% | Rep | 0.009 | ✓ |
| 2024 GA President | Rep 62% | Rep | 0.146 | ✓ |
| 2024 IA President | Rep 83% | Rep | 0.028 | ✓ |
| 2024 MA President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 MD President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 ME President | Dem 92% | Dem | 0.007 | ✓ |
| 2024 ME-1 President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 ME-2 President | Rep 87% | Rep | 0.018 | ✓ |
| 2024 MI President | Dem 61% | Rep | 0.373 | ✗ |
| 2024 MN President | Dem 88% | Dem | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 2024 MO President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 MT President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NC President | Rep 63% | Rep | 0.139 | ✓ |
| 2024 NE President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NE-1 President | Rep 96% | Rep | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2024 NE-2 President | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2024 NE-3 President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NH President | Dem 86% | Dem | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2024 NJ President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NM President | Dem 89% | Dem | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 2024 NV President | Rep 52% | Rep | 0.229 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 OH President | Rep 95% | Rep | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2024 OK President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 OR President | Dem 97% | Dem | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2024 PA President | Rep 51% | Rep | 0.244 | ✓ |
| 2024 RI President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 SC President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 SD President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 TX President | Rep 93% | Rep | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2024 UT President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 VA President | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.011 | ✓ |
| 2024 VT President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 WA President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 WI President | Dem 56% | Rep | 0.319 | ✗ |
| 2024 WY President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 AZ Senate | Dem 83% | Dem | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 2024 CA Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 FL Senate | Rep 84% | Rep | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2024 MA Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 MD Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 MI Senate | Dem 80% | Dem | 0.042 | ✓ |
| 2024 MN Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 MO Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 MT Senate | Rep 78% | Rep | 0.047 | ✓ |
| 2024 NJ Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NM Senate | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NV Senate | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 OH Senate | Dem 57% | Rep | 0.322 | ✗ |
| 2024 PA Senate | Dem 73% | Rep | 0.531 | ✗ |
| 2024 RI Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 TX Senate | Rep 78% | Rep | 0.050 | ✓ |
| 2024 UT Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 VA Senate | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 WA Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 WI Senate | Dem 72% | Dem | 0.080 | ✓ |
| 2024 WY Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 AK-1 House | Dem 91% | Dem | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2022 CA-21 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 CA-26 House | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 CA-27 House | Rep 71% | Rep | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 2022 CA-41 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 CA-49 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 CO-3 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 CO-8 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 CT-2 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 CT-4 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 CT-5 House | Dem 60% | Dem | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 2022 DE-1 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-13 House | Rep 87% | Rep | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-15 House | Rep 95% | Rep | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-2 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-27 House | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-28 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-4 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 GA-2 House | Dem 95% | Dem | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2022 IA-3 House | Rep 62% | Rep | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 2022 IL-10 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 IL-17 House | Rep 52% | Dem | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 2022 KS-2 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 KS-3 House | Dem 86% | Dem | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2022 MD-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 MD-2 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 MD-6 House | Dem 87% | Dem | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 2022 ME-1 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 ME-2 House | Dem 60% | Dem | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 2022 MI-10 House | Rep 95% | Rep | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2022 MI-7 House | Dem 54% | Dem | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 2022 MI-8 House | Dem 74% | Dem | 0.068 | ✓ |
| 2022 MN-1 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 MN-2 House | Dem 54% | Dem | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 2022 MT-1 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 MT-2 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 NC-1 House | Dem 78% | Dem | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 2022 NC-13 House | Rep 61% | Dem | 0.372 | ✗ |
| 2022 NH-1 House | Rep 51% | Dem | 0.260 | ✗ |
| 2022 NH-2 House | Dem 88% | Dem | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 2022 NJ-7 House | Rep 86% | Rep | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2022 NM-1 House | Dem 94% | Dem | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2022 NM-2 House | Rep 72% | Dem | 0.518 | ✗ |
| 2022 NM-3 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 NV-1 House | Rep 63% | Dem | 0.397 | ✗ |
| 2022 NV-2 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 NV-3 House | Rep 52% | Dem | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 2022 NV-4 House | Dem 81% | Dem | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 2022 NY-11 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 NY-17 House | Dem 94% | Rep | 0.884 | ✗ |
| 2022 NY-19 House | Dem 52% | Rep | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 2022 NY-22 House | Dem 55% | Rep | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 2022 NY-25 House | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 OH-1 House | Rep 65% | Dem | 0.423 | ✗ |
| 2022 OH-13 House | Rep 53% | Dem | 0.281 | ✗ |
| 2022 OR-4 House | Dem 66% | Dem | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 2022 OR-6 House | Dem 62% | Dem | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 2022 PA-12 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 PA-17 House | Rep 64% | Dem | 0.410 | ✗ |
| 2022 PA-7 House | Rep 68% | Dem | 0.462 | ✗ |
| 2022 PA-8 House | Even | Dem | 0.250 | — |
| 2022 RI-2 House | Rep 61% | Dem | 0.372 | ✗ |
| 2022 TX-15 House | Rep 93% | Rep | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2022 VA-10 House | Dem 95% | Dem | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2022 VA-2 House | Rep 62% | Rep | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 2022 VA-7 House | Dem 68% | Dem | 0.102 | ✓ |
| 2022 VT-1 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 WA-3 House | Rep 99% | Dem | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 2022 WY-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 AL Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 AR Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 AZ Senate | Dem 65% | Dem | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 2022 CA Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 CO Senate | Dem 92% | Dem | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2022 CT Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL Senate | Rep 97% | Rep | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2022 GA Senate | Rep 55% | Dem | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 2022 IA Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 IL Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 IN Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 KS Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 MD Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 MO Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 NC Senate | Rep 81% | Rep | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 2022 NH Senate | Dem 72% | Dem | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 2022 NV Senate | Rep 60% | Dem | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 2022 NY Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 OH Senate | Rep 92% | Rep | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2022 OK Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 OR Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 PA Senate | Rep 52% | Dem | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 2022 SD Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 VT Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 WA Senate | Dem 94% | Dem | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2022 WI Senate | Rep 80% | Rep | 0.040 | ✓ |
| 2020 AK-1 House | Rep 78% | Rep | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 2020 AR-2 House | Rep 73% | Rep | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 2020 AZ-6 House | Rep 70% | Rep | 0.090 | ✓ |
| 2020 CA-1 House | Rep 97% | Rep | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2020 CA-21 House | Dem 76% | Rep | 0.578 | ✗ |
| 2020 CA-22 House | Rep 93% | Rep | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2020 CA-25 House | Dem 53% | Rep | 0.281 | ✗ |
| 2020 CA-39 House | Dem 83% | Rep | 0.689 | ✗ |
| 2020 CA-4 House | Rep 93% | Rep | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2020 CA-49 House | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 CA-50 House | Rep 84% | Rep | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2020 CO-3 House | Rep 73% | Rep | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 2020 DE-1 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 FL-13 House | Dem 97% | Dem | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2020 FL-15 House | Rep 79% | Rep | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 2020 FL-16 House | Rep 91% | Rep | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2020 FL-18 House | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2020 FL-21 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 FL-27 House | Dem 92% | Rep | 0.846 | ✗ |
| 2020 FL-4 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 IA-1 House | Dem 82% | Rep | 0.672 | ✗ |
| 2020 IA-2 House | Dem 74% | Rep | 0.548 | ✗ |
| 2020 IA-3 House | Dem 67% | Dem | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 2020 IA-4 House | Rep 96% | Rep | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2020 IL-13 House | Rep 65% | Rep | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 2020 IL-17 House | Dem 95% | Dem | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2020 IL-3 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 IL-6 House | Dem 96% | Dem | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2020 IN-5 House | Rep 59% | Rep | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 2020 KS-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 KS-2 House | Rep 85% | Rep | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 2020 KS-3 House | Dem 91% | Dem | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2020 KS-4 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 ME-1 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 ME-2 House | Dem 92% | Dem | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2020 MI-3 House | Rep 64% | Rep | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 2020 MN-1 House | Rep 72% | Rep | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 2020 MN-2 House | Dem 91% | Dem | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2020 MO-2 House | Rep 71% | Rep | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 2020 MT-1 House | Rep 63% | Rep | 0.137 | ✓ |
| 2020 NC-11 House | Rep 83% | Rep | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 2020 NC-8 House | Rep 71% | Rep | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 2020 NC-9 House | Rep 87% | Rep | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 2020 NE-2 House | Rep 61% | Rep | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 2020 NH-1 House | Dem 86% | Dem | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2020 NH-2 House | Dem 97% | Dem | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2020 NJ-2 House | Dem 56% | Rep | 0.314 | ✗ |
| 2020 NM-1 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NM-2 House | Dem 57% | Rep | 0.325 | ✗ |
| 2020 NM-3 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NY-1 House | Rep 81% | Rep | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 2020 NY-11 House | Dem 52% | Rep | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 2020 NY-18 House | Dem 94% | Dem | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2020 NY-22 House | Dem 64% | Rep | 0.410 | ✗ |
| 2020 NY-23 House | Rep 95% | Rep | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2020 NY-24 House | Rep 58% | Rep | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 2020 OH-1 House | Rep 66% | Rep | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 2020 OH-10 House | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2020 OH-12 House | Rep 89% | Rep | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 2020 OK-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 OK-5 House | Rep 53% | Rep | 0.221 | ✓ |
| 2020 PA-1 House | Rep 73% | Rep | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 2020 PA-10 House | Rep 61% | Rep | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 2020 PA-7 House | Dem 94% | Dem | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2020 PA-8 House | Dem 82% | Dem | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 2020 SC-1 House | Dem 66% | Rep | 0.436 | ✗ |
| 2020 TX-10 House | Rep 81% | Rep | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 2020 TX-21 House | Rep 68% | Rep | 0.102 | ✓ |
| 2020 TX-22 House | Rep 62% | Rep | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 2020 TX-23 House | Dem 73% | Rep | 0.533 | ✗ |
| 2020 TX-25 House | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2020 TX-3 House | Rep 88% | Rep | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 2020 TX-6 House | Rep 89% | Rep | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 2020 TX-7 House | Dem 79% | Dem | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 2020 UT-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 UT-2 House | Rep 98% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 UT-3 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 UT-4 House | Dem 54% | Rep | 0.292 | ✗ |
| 2020 VA-10 House | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 VA-2 House | Dem 73% | Dem | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 2020 VA-5 House | Rep 68% | Rep | 0.102 | ✓ |
| 2020 VA-7 House | Dem 64% | Dem | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 2020 VT-1 House | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 WA-3 House | Rep 82% | Rep | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 2020 WY-1 House | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 AK President | Rep 87% | Rep | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 2020 AL President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 AR President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 AZ President | Dem 73% | Dem | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 2020 CA President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 CO President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 CT President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 DC President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 DE President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 FL President | Dem 75% | Rep | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2020 GA President | Dem 67% | Dem | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 2020 HI President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 IA President | Rep 55% | Rep | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 2020 ID President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 IL President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 IN President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 KS President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 KY President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 LA President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 MA President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 MD President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 ME President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 MI President | Dem 96% | Dem | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2020 MN President | Dem 98% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 MO President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 MS President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 MT President | Rep 94% | Rep | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2020 NC President | Dem 70% | Rep | 0.490 | ✗ |
| 2020 ND President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NE President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NH President | Dem 97% | Dem | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2020 NJ President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NM President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NV President | Dem 92% | Dem | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2020 NY President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 OH President | Rep 58% | Rep | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 2020 OK President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 OR President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 PA President | Dem 91% | Dem | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2020 RI President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 SC President | Rep 97% | Rep | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2020 SD President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 TN President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 TX President | Rep 66% | Rep | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 2020 UT President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 VA President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 VT President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 WA President | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 WI President | Dem 96% | Dem | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2020 WV President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 WY President | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 AK Senate | Rep 95% | Rep | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2020 AL Senate | Rep 96% | Rep | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2020 CO Senate | Dem 92% | Dem | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2020 DE Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 GA Senate | Dem 55% | Rep | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 2020 IA Senate | Rep 52% | Rep | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 2020 IL Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 KS Senate | Rep 86% | Rep | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2020 KY Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 MA Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 ME Senate | Dem 73% | Rep | 0.533 | ✗ |
| 2020 MI Senate | Dem 94% | Dem | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2020 MN Senate | Dem 96% | Dem | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2020 MS Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 MT Senate | Rep 65% | Rep | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 2020 NC Senate | Dem 79% | Rep | 0.624 | ✗ |
| 2020 NE Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NH Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NJ Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NM Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 OK Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 OR Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 SC Senate | Rep 81% | Rep | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 2020 SD Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 TN Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 TX Senate | Rep 93% | Rep | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2020 VA Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 WV Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 WY Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 AZ Senate | Dem 59% | Dem | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 2018 CT Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 DE Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 FL Senate | Dem 65% | Rep | 0.423 | ✗ |
| 2018 IN Senate | Dem 59% | Rep | 0.348 | ✗ |
| 2018 MA Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 MD Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 ME Senate | Dem 99% | Rep | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 2018 MI Senate | Dem 97% | Dem | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2018 MN Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 MO Senate | Rep 51% | Rep | 0.240 | ✓ |
| 2018 MS Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 MT Senate | Dem 74% | Dem | 0.068 | ✓ |
| 2018 ND Senate | Rep 88% | Rep | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 2018 NE Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 NJ Senate | Dem 95% | Dem | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2018 NM Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 NV Senate | Dem 56% | Dem | 0.194 | ✓ |
| 2018 NY Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 OH Senate | Dem 97% | Dem | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2018 PA Senate | Dem 97% | Dem | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2018 RI Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 TN Senate | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2018 TX Senate | Rep 83% | Rep | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 2018 UT Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 VA Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 WA Senate | Dem 100% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2018 WI Senate | Dem 95% | Dem | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2018 WV Senate | Dem 68% | Dem | 0.102 | ✓ |
| 2018 WY Senate | Rep 100% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
By office
| Office | Races | Brier | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|
| House | 193 | 0.114 | 82% |
| Senate | 107 | 0.064 | 90% |
By cycle
| Year | Races | Brier | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 30 | 0.088 | 90% |
| 2020 | 165 | 0.079 | 89% |
| 2022 | 96 | 0.108 | 80% |
| 2024 | 100 | 0.064 | 91% |
Why no “time to election” curve? Unlike pollsters — where we have every poll with its field dates — our forecaster archive (JHK Forecasts) stores only each outfit's final pre-election forecast per race, not its earlier snapshots. So a lead-time breakdown genuinely isn't in the data for forecasters. Pollster pages do show it (e.g. the leaderboard).