Polymarket vs VotePredictor
A crypto-settled prediction market. Scored on its 2024 and 2025 race markets with $100,000 or more traded, at the last price in its order-book history before Election Day. A market price is the crowd's probability, so it is scored like any forecast: the Brier score of its final pre-election price (lower is better), over 47 races, 2024–2025.
Polymarket vs VotePredictor Elections
On the 47 races Polymarket priced, its final price against our win probability for the same races. Ours is the walk-forward record: each cycle forecast by a model fit only on earlier elections.
| Model | Brier | Called right |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0.059 | 94% |
| VotePredictor Elections | 0.038 | 98% |
Polymarket against every forecaster and market
Paired with each forecaster and the other markets on only the races both of them called. The blue dot is Polymarket, the grey dot the other side; the line is green where Polymarket scored the better Brier and red where it scored worse.
Polymarket: Brier 0.059 on all 47 of these races · picked the winner in 94% · better than 12 of 15 forecasters and markets on their own races.
# = rank on the overall leaderboard, which orders this list
- #1FiveThirtyEight43 racesWorse · closer in 29%
- #4VotePredictor Elections47 racesWorse · closer in 17%
- #7JHK Forecasts43 racesBetter · closer in 31%
- #8Cook Political43 racesBetter · closer in 45%
- #9Race to the WH43 racesBetter · closer in 21%
- #10Sabato's Crystal Ball43 racesBetter · closer in 36%
- #11The Economist43 racesBetter · closer in 26%
- #12Inside Elections43 racesBetter · closer in 54%
- #13Fox News31 racesBetter · closer in 30%
- #14Split Ticket43 racesBetter · closer in 60%
- #16DDHQ/Decision Desk43 racesWorse · closer in 41%
- #22Elections Daily31 racesBetter · closer in 30%
- #24CNalysis43 racesBetter · closer in 41%
- #25Silver Bulletin31 racesBetter · closer in 41%
- —Kalshi20 racesBetter · closer in 95%
Every race, side by side (47)
VotePredictor was closer in 28 and Polymarket in 8 (11 tied).
| Race | Market | Ours | Winner | Closer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 NJ Governor | Dem 86% | Dem 71% | Dem | Them |
| 2025 VA Governor | Dem 98% | Dem 91% | Dem | Them |
| 2025 FL-6 House | Rep 90% | Rep 91% | Rep | Us |
| 2025 TN-7 House | Rep 87% | Rep 81% | Rep | Them |
| 2024 AK President | Rep 92% | Rep 100% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 AZ President | Rep 75% | Rep 91% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 CA President | Dem 99% | Dem 100% | Dem | Tie |
| 2024 CO President | Dem 97% | Dem 100% | Dem | Us |
| 2024 FL President | Rep 93% | Rep 100% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 GA President | Rep 64% | Rep 85% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 IA President | Rep 81% | Rep 99% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 MA President | Dem 99% | Dem 100% | Dem | Tie |
| 2024 MD President | Dem 99% | Dem 100% | Dem | Tie |
| 2024 ME President | Dem 91% | Dem 99% | Dem | Us |
| 2024 ME-2 President | Rep 85% | Rep 99% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 MI President | Dem 60% | Rep 62% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 MN President | Dem 92% | Dem 74% | Dem | Them |
| 2024 MO President | Rep 99% | Rep 100% | Rep | Tie |
| 2024 NC President | Rep 63% | Rep 86% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 NE President | Rep 99% | Rep 100% | Rep | Tie |
| 2024 NE-2 President | Dem 89% | Dem 99% | Dem | Us |
| 2024 NH President | Dem 85% | Dem 99% | Dem | Us |
| 2024 NJ President | Dem 97% | Dem 100% | Dem | Us |
| 2024 NV President | Rep 58% | Rep 83% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 OH President | Rep 90% | Rep 100% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 OR President | Dem 98% | Dem 100% | Dem | Tie |
| 2024 PA President | Rep 54% | Rep 74% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 RI President | Dem 99% | Dem 100% | Dem | Tie |
| 2024 SD President | Rep 99% | Rep 100% | Rep | Tie |
| 2024 TX President | Rep 92% | Rep 100% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 VA President | Dem 89% | Dem 81% | Dem | Them |
| 2024 VT President | Dem 99% | Dem 100% | Dem | Tie |
| 2024 WA President | Dem 99% | Dem 100% | Dem | Tie |
| 2024 WI President | Dem 59% | Rep 69% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 WY President | Rep 100% | Rep 100% | Rep | Tie |
| 2024 AZ Senate | Dem 77% | Dem 60% | Dem | Them |
| 2024 FL Senate | Rep 91% | Rep 99% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 MA Senate | Dem 97% | Dem 100% | Dem | Us |
| 2024 MD Senate | Dem 93% | Dem 100% | Dem | Us |
| 2024 MI Senate | Dem 78% | Dem 58% | Dem | Them |
| 2024 MT Senate | Rep 82% | Rep 99% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 NJ Senate | Dem 96% | Dem 100% | Dem | Us |
| 2024 NV Senate | Dem 80% | Dem 81% | Dem | Us |
| 2024 OH Senate | Rep 51% | Rep 74% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 PA Senate | Dem 78% | Dem 74% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 TX Senate | Rep 78% | Rep 98% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 WI Senate | Dem 74% | Dem 61% | Dem | Them |
By office
| Office | Races | Brier | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | 2 | 0.011 | 100% |
| House | 2 | 0.013 | 100% |
| President | 31 | 0.051 | 94% |
| Senate | 12 | 0.096 | 92% |
By cycle
| Year | Races | Brier | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 43 | 0.064 | 93% |
| 2025 | 4 | 0.012 | 100% |