VotePredictor
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Polymarket vs VotePredictor

A crypto-settled prediction market. Scored on its 2024 and 2025 race markets with $100,000 or more traded, at the last price in its order-book history before Election Day. A market price is the crowd's probability, so it is scored like any forecast: the Brier score of its final pre-election price (lower is better), over 47 races, 2024–2025.

Overall Brier
0.059
Races scored
47

Polymarket vs VotePredictor Elections

On the 47 races Polymarket priced, its final price against our win probability for the same races. Ours is the walk-forward record: each cycle forecast by a model fit only on earlier elections.

ModelBrierCalled right
Polymarket0.05994%
VotePredictor Elections0.03898%

Polymarket against every forecaster and market

Paired with each forecaster and the other markets on only the races both of them called. The blue dot is Polymarket, the grey dot the other side; the line is green where Polymarket scored the better Brier and red where it scored worse.

Polymarket: Brier 0.059 on all 47 of these races · picked the winner in 94% · better than 12 of 15 forecasters and markets on their own races.

PolymarketThemBrier, lower is better · hover a row for the numbers

# = rank on the overall leaderboard, which orders this list

  • #1FiveThirtyEight43 racesWorse · closer in 29%
  • #4VotePredictor Elections47 racesWorse · closer in 17%
  • #7JHK Forecasts43 racesBetter · closer in 31%
  • #8Cook Political43 racesBetter · closer in 45%
  • #9Race to the WH43 racesBetter · closer in 21%
  • #10Sabato's Crystal Ball43 racesBetter · closer in 36%
  • #11The Economist43 racesBetter · closer in 26%
  • #12Inside Elections43 racesBetter · closer in 54%
  • #13Fox News31 racesBetter · closer in 30%
  • #14Split Ticket43 racesBetter · closer in 60%
  • #16DDHQ/Decision Desk43 racesWorse · closer in 41%
  • #22Elections Daily31 racesBetter · closer in 30%
  • #24CNalysis43 racesBetter · closer in 41%
  • #25Silver Bulletin31 racesBetter · closer in 41%
  • —Kalshi20 racesBetter · closer in 95%
0.0330.128

Every race, side by side (47)

VotePredictor was closer in 28 and Polymarket in 8 (11 tied).

RaceMarketOursWinnerCloser
2025 NJ GovernorDem 86%Dem 71%DemThem
2025 VA GovernorDem 98%Dem 91%DemThem
2025 FL-6 HouseRep 90%Rep 91%RepUs
2025 TN-7 HouseRep 87%Rep 81%RepThem
2024 AK PresidentRep 92%Rep 100%RepUs
2024 AZ PresidentRep 75%Rep 91%RepUs
2024 CA PresidentDem 99%Dem 100%DemTie
2024 CO PresidentDem 97%Dem 100%DemUs
2024 FL PresidentRep 93%Rep 100%RepUs
2024 GA PresidentRep 64%Rep 85%RepUs
2024 IA PresidentRep 81%Rep 99%RepUs
2024 MA PresidentDem 99%Dem 100%DemTie
2024 MD PresidentDem 99%Dem 100%DemTie
2024 ME PresidentDem 91%Dem 99%DemUs
2024 ME-2 PresidentRep 85%Rep 99%RepUs
2024 MI PresidentDem 60%Rep 62%RepUs
2024 MN PresidentDem 92%Dem 74%DemThem
2024 MO PresidentRep 99%Rep 100%RepTie
2024 NC PresidentRep 63%Rep 86%RepUs
2024 NE PresidentRep 99%Rep 100%RepTie
2024 NE-2 PresidentDem 89%Dem 99%DemUs
2024 NH PresidentDem 85%Dem 99%DemUs
2024 NJ PresidentDem 97%Dem 100%DemUs
2024 NV PresidentRep 58%Rep 83%RepUs
2024 OH PresidentRep 90%Rep 100%RepUs
2024 OR PresidentDem 98%Dem 100%DemTie
2024 PA PresidentRep 54%Rep 74%RepUs
2024 RI PresidentDem 99%Dem 100%DemTie
2024 SD PresidentRep 99%Rep 100%RepTie
2024 TX PresidentRep 92%Rep 100%RepUs
2024 VA PresidentDem 89%Dem 81%DemThem
2024 VT PresidentDem 99%Dem 100%DemTie
2024 WA PresidentDem 99%Dem 100%DemTie
2024 WI PresidentDem 59%Rep 69%RepUs
2024 WY PresidentRep 100%Rep 100%RepTie
2024 AZ SenateDem 77%Dem 60%DemThem
2024 FL SenateRep 91%Rep 99%RepUs
2024 MA SenateDem 97%Dem 100%DemUs
2024 MD SenateDem 93%Dem 100%DemUs
2024 MI SenateDem 78%Dem 58%DemThem
2024 MT SenateRep 82%Rep 99%RepUs
2024 NJ SenateDem 96%Dem 100%DemUs
2024 NV SenateDem 80%Dem 81%DemUs
2024 OH SenateRep 51%Rep 74%RepUs
2024 PA SenateDem 78%Dem 74%RepUs
2024 TX SenateRep 78%Rep 98%RepUs
2024 WI SenateDem 74%Dem 61%DemThem

By office

OfficeRacesBrierCalled right
Governor20.011100%
House20.013100%
President310.05194%
Senate120.09692%

By cycle

YearRacesBrierCalled right
2024430.06493%
202540.012100%