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Elections Daily
Forecaster quality, broken out by office and by cycle. Scored on the Brier score of its final pre-election win probability (lower is better), over 259 races, 2016–2024.
Overall Brier
0.105
Races scored
259
Head-to-head vs the VotePredictor model
Apples-to-apples: on the 259 races Elections Daily forecast, its win-probability Brier vs VotePredictor's calibrated win-prob on those same races.
| Model | Brier | Called right |
|---|---|---|
| Elections Daily | 0.105 | 85% |
| VotePredictor | 0.081 | 89% |
Every race (259)
Each race Elections Daily scored, with its final pre-election call vs who actually won, and the Brier score for that call. Click a race for its full detail.
| Race | Their call | Winner | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 AK-1 House | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2024 AL-2 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 CA-22 House | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2024 CA-47 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2024 CA-49 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2024 CA-51 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 CO-8 House | Dem 75% | Rep | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2024 CT-5 House | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2024 FL-13 House | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2024 FL-4 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 GA-2 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 IA-1 House | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2024 IA-2 House | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2024 IA-3 House | Dem 75% | Rep | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2024 IA-4 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 IL-17 House | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2024 ME-1 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 ME-2 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2024 MI-10 House | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2024 MI-7 House | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2024 MT-1 House | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2024 NE-1 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NE-2 House | Dem 75% | Rep | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2024 NE-3 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NH-1 House | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2024 NH-2 House | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY-1 House | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY-17 House | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY-18 House | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY-22 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY-3 House | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2024 NY-4 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2024 OH-13 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2024 PA-8 House | Dem 75% | Rep | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2024 SD-1 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 VA-2 House | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2024 VA-7 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2024 VT-1 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 AK President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 AZ President | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2024 CA President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 CO President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 FL President | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2024 GA President | Dem 75% | Rep | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2024 IA President | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2024 MA President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 MD President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 ME President | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2024 ME-1 President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 ME-2 President | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2024 MI President | Dem 75% | Rep | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2024 MN President | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2024 MO President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 MT President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NC President | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2024 NE President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NE-1 President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NE-2 President | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2024 NE-3 President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NH President | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2024 NJ President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 NM President | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2024 NV President | Dem 75% | Rep | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2024 NY President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 OH President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 OK President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 OR President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 PA President | Dem 75% | Rep | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2024 RI President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 SC President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 SD President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 TX President | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2024 UT President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 VA President | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2024 VT President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 WA President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2024 WI President | Dem 75% | Rep | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2024 WY President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 AK-1 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 CA-21 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 CA-26 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 CA-27 House | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 CA-41 House | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 CA-49 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 CO-3 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 CO-8 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 CT-2 House | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 CT-4 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 CT-5 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 DE-1 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-1 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-13 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-15 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-2 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-27 House | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-28 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL-4 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 GA-2 House | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 IA-3 House | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 IL-10 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 IL-17 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 KS-2 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 KS-3 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 MD-1 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 MD-2 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 MD-6 House | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 ME-1 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 ME-2 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 MI-10 House | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 MI-7 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 MI-8 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 MN-1 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 MN-2 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 MT-1 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 MT-2 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 NC-1 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 NC-13 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 ND-1 House | Rep 99% | Dem | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 2022 NH-1 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 NH-2 House | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 NJ-7 House | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 NM-1 House | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 NM-2 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 NM-3 House | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 NV-1 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 NV-2 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 NV-3 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 NV-4 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 NY-11 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 NY-17 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 NY-19 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 NY-22 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 NY-25 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 OH-1 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 OH-13 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 OR-4 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 OR-6 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 PA-12 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 PA-17 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 PA-7 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 PA-8 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 RI-2 House | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 SD-1 House | Rep 99% | Dem | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 2022 TX-15 House | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 VA-10 House | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 VA-2 House | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 VA-7 House | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 VT-1 House | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 WA-3 House | Rep 90% | Dem | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 2022 WY-1 House | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 AK Senate | Rep 99% | Dem | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 2022 AL Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 AR Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 AZ Senate | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 CA Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 CO Senate | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 CT Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 FL Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 GA Senate | Even | Dem | 0.250 | — |
| 2022 IA Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 IL Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 IN Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 KS Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 MD Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 MO Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 NC Senate | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 NH Senate | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2022 NV Senate | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 NY Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 OH Senate | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2022 OK Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 OR Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 PA Senate | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2022 SD Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 UT Senate | Rep 99% | Dem | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 2022 VT Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 WA Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2022 WI Senate | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2020 AK President | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2020 AL President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 AR President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 AZ President | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2020 CA President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 CO President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 CT President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 DC President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 DE President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 FL President | Dem 75% | Rep | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2020 GA President | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2020 HI President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 IA President | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2020 ID President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 IL President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 IN President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 KS President | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2020 KY President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 LA President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 MA President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 MD President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 ME President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 MI President | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2020 MN President | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2020 MO President | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2020 MS President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 MT President | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2020 NC President | Dem 75% | Rep | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2020 ND President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NE President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NH President | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2020 NJ President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NM President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NV President | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2020 NY President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 OH President | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2020 OK President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 OR President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 PA President | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2020 RI President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 SC President | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2020 SD President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 TN President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 TX President | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2020 UT President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 VA President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 VT President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 WA President | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 WI President | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2020 WV President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 WY President | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 AK Senate | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2020 AL Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 AR Senate | Rep 99% | Dem | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 2020 CO Senate | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2020 DE Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 GA Senate | Rep 75% | Dem | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2020 IA Senate | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2020 IL Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 KS Senate | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2020 KY Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 MA Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 ME Senate | Dem 75% | Rep | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2020 MI Senate | Dem 75% | Dem | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2020 MN Senate | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2020 MS Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 MT Senate | Rep 75% | Rep | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2020 NC Senate | Dem 75% | Rep | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2020 NE Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NH Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NJ Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 NM Senate | Dem 90% | Dem | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2020 OK Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 OR Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 SC Senate | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2020 SD Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 TN Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 TX Senate | Rep 90% | Rep | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2020 VA Senate | Dem 99% | Dem | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 WV Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2020 WY Senate | Rep 99% | Rep | 0.000 | ✓ |
By office
| Office | Races | Brier | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|
| House | 110 | 0.140 | 81% |
| Senate | 58 | 0.112 | 86% |
By cycle
| Year | Races | Brier | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 81 | 0.066 | 91% |
| 2022 | 100 | 0.151 | 80% |
| 2024 | 78 | 0.088 | 87% |
Why no “time to election” curve? Unlike pollsters — where we have every poll with its field dates — our forecaster archive (JHK Forecasts) stores only each outfit's final pre-election forecast per race, not its earlier snapshots. So a lead-time breakdown genuinely isn't in the data for forecasters. Pollster pages do show it (e.g. the leaderboard).