Princeton Election Consortium

Forecaster quality, broken out by office and by cycle. Scored on the Brier score of its final pre-election win probability (lower is better), over 132 races, 2016–2024.

Overall Brier

0.065

Races scored

132

Head-to-head vs the VotePredictor model

Apples-to-apples: on the 132 races Princeton Election Consortium forecast, its win-probability Brier vs VotePredictor's calibrated win-prob on those same races.

Model	Brier	Called right
Princeton Election Consortium	0.065	91%
VotePredictor	0.046	93%

Every race (132)

Each race Princeton Election Consortium scored, with its final pre-election call vs who actually won, and the Brier score for that call. Click a race for its full detail.

Race	Their call	Winner	Brier	Called
2020 AK President	Rep 98%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 AL President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 AR President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 AZ President	Dem 80%	Dem	0.040	✓
2020 CA President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 CO President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 CT President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 DC President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 DE President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 FL President	Dem 81%	Rep	0.656	✗
2020 GA President	Dem 64%	Dem	0.130	✓
2020 HI President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 IA President	Rep 62%	Rep	0.144	✓
2020 ID President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 IL President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 IN President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 KS President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 KY President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 LA President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 MA President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 MD President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 ME President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 MI President	Dem 95%	Dem	0.003	✓
2020 MN President	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 MO President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 MS President	Rep 98%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 MT President	Rep 95%	Rep	0.003	✓
2020 NC President	Dem 72%	Rep	0.518	✗
2020 ND President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 NE President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 NH President	Dem 93%	Dem	0.005	✓
2020 NJ President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 NM President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 NV President	Dem 91%	Dem	0.008	✓
2020 NY President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 OH President	Rep 79%	Rep	0.044	✓
2020 OK President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 OR President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 PA President	Dem 89%	Dem	0.012	✓
2020 RI President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 SC President	Rep 98%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 SD President	Rep 96%	Rep	0.002	✓
2020 TN President	Rep 96%	Rep	0.002	✓
2020 TX President	Rep 79%	Rep	0.044	✓
2020 UT President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 VA President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 VT President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 WA President	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 WI President	Dem 95%	Dem	0.003	✓
2020 WV President	Rep 95%	Rep	0.003	✓
2020 WY President	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 AK Senate	Rep 80%	Rep	0.040	✓
2020 AL Senate	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 AR Senate	Rep 100%	Dem	1.000	✗
2020 CO Senate	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 DE Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 GA Senate	Dem 64%	Dem	0.130	✓
2020 IA Senate	Dem 72%	Rep	0.518	✗
2020 IL Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 KS Senate	Rep 84%	Rep	0.026	✓
2020 KY Senate	Rep 98%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 MA Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 ME Senate	Dem 77%	Rep	0.593	✗
2020 MI Senate	Dem 96%	Dem	0.002	✓
2020 MN Senate	Dem 97%	Dem	0.001	✓
2020 MS Senate	Rep 80%	Rep	0.040	✓
2020 MT Senate	Dem 62%	Rep	0.384	✗
2020 NC Senate	Dem 81%	Rep	0.656	✗
2020 NE Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 NH Senate	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 NJ Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 NM Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 OK Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 OR Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 SC Senate	Rep 74%	Rep	0.068	✓
2020 SD Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 TN Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 TX Senate	Rep 90%	Rep	0.010	✓
2020 VA Senate	Dem 100%	Dem	0.000	✓
2020 WV Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2020 WY Senate	Rep 100%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 AK President	Rep 96%	Rep	0.002	✓
2016 AL President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 AR President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 AZ President	Rep 91%	Rep	0.008	✓
2016 CA President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 CO President	Dem 96%	Dem	0.002	✓
2016 CT President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 DC President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 DE President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 FL President	Dem 69%	Rep	0.476	✗
2016 GA President	Rep 88%	Rep	0.014	✓
2016 HI President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 IA President	Rep 74%	Rep	0.068	✓
2016 ID President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 IL President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 IN President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 KS President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 KY President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 LA President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 MA President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 MD President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 ME President	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 MI President	Dem 79%	Rep	0.624	✗
2016 MN President	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 MO President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 MS President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 MT President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 NC President	Dem 67%	Rep	0.449	✗
2016 ND President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 NE President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 NH President	Dem 63%	Dem	0.137	✓
2016 NJ President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 NM President	Dem 91%	Dem	0.008	✓
2016 NV President	Dem 84%	Dem	0.026	✓
2016 NY President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 OH President	Rep 63%	Rep	0.137	✓
2016 OK President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 OR President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 PA President	Dem 79%	Rep	0.624	✗
2016 RI President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 SC President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 SD President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 TN President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 TX President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 UT President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 VA President	Dem 98%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 VT President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 WA President	Dem 99%	Dem	0.000	✓
2016 WI President	Dem 98%	Rep	0.960	✗
2016 WV President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓
2016 WY President	Rep 99%	Rep	0.000	✓

By office

Office	Races	Brier	Called right
Senate	30	0.116	83%

By cycle

Year	Races	Brier	Called right
2016	51	0.069	90%
2020	81	0.063	91%

Why no “time to election” curve? Unlike pollsters — where we have every poll with its field dates — our forecaster archive (JHK Forecasts) stores only each outfit's final pre-election forecast per race, not its earlier snapshots. So a lead-time breakdown genuinely isn't in the data for forecasters. Pollster pages do show it (e.g. the leaderboard).