New York Times
Forecaster quality, broken out by office and by cycle. Scored on the Brier score of its final pre-election win probability (lower is better), over 51 races, 2016–2024.
Head-to-head vs the VotePredictor model
Apples-to-apples: on the 51 races New York Times forecast, its win-probability Brier vs VotePredictor's calibrated win-prob on those same races.
| Model | Brier | Called right |
|---|---|---|
| New York Times | 0.081 | 90% |
| VotePredictor | 0.062 | 90% |
Every race (51)
Each race New York Times scored, with its final pre-election call vs who actually won, and the Brier score for that call. Click a race for its full detail.
By office
By cycle
| Year | Races | Brier | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 51 | 0.081 | 90% |
Why no “time to election” curve? Unlike pollsters — where we have every poll with its field dates — our forecaster archive (JHK Forecasts) stores only each outfit's final pre-election forecast per race, not its earlier snapshots. So a lead-time breakdown genuinely isn't in the data for forecasters. Pollster pages do show it (e.g. the leaderboard).