PredictIt vs VotePredictor

A small-stakes market run by Victoria University of Wellington under a CFTC no-action letter, with an $850 cap per contract at the time. Scored on its 2016–2022 race markets with $100,000 or more traded, at the last daily close before Election Day; its two contracts (Democrat and Republican) sum to slightly over $1, so the price is the Democrat's share of the two. A market price is the crowd's probability, so it is scored like any forecast: the Brier score of its final pre-election price (lower is better), over 84 races, 2016–2022.

Overall Brier

0.105

Races scored

PredictIt vs VotePredictor Elections

On the 84 races PredictIt priced, its final price against our win probability for the same races. Ours is the walk-forward record: each cycle forecast by a model fit only on earlier elections.

Model	Brier	Called right
PredictIt	0.105	86%
VotePredictor Elections	0.086	86%

PredictIt against every forecaster and market

Paired with each forecaster and the other markets on only the races both of them called. The blue dot is PredictIt, the grey dot the other side; the line is green where PredictIt scored the better Brier and red where it scored worse.

Competitive only(final margin < 10 pts)

PredictIt: Brier 0.105 on all 84 of these races · picked the winner in 86% · better than 7 of 15 forecasters and markets on their own races.

PredictItThemBrier, lower is better · hover a row for the numbers

# = rank on the overall leaderboard, which orders this list

#1FiveThirtyEight83 racesWorse · closer in 35%
#4VotePredictor Elections84 racesWorse · closer in 14%
#7JHK Forecasts67 racesWorse · closer in 27%
#8Cook Political83 racesBetter · closer in 47%
#9Race to the WH54 racesWorse · closer in 28%
#10Sabato's Crystal Ball83 racesWorse · closer in 41%
#11The Economist54 racesWorse · closer in 28%
#12Inside Elections83 racesBetter · closer in 49%
#13Fox News25 racesWorse · closer in 52%
#14Split Ticket11 racesWorse · closer in 45%
#16DDHQ/Decision Desk67 racesBetter · closer in 49%
#21Princeton Election Consortium43 racesBetter · closer in 21%
#22Elections Daily67 racesBetter · closer in 27%
#24CNalysis54 racesBetter · closer in 39%
#48RealClearPolitics68 racesBetter · closer in 78%

0.0750.154

Every race, side by side (84)

VotePredictor was closer in 71 and PredictIt in 12 (1 tied).

Race	Market	Ours	Winner	Closer
2022 AZ Governor	Rep 83%	Rep 88%	Dem	Them
2022 CT Governor	Dem 94%	Dem 100%	Dem	Us
2022 GA Governor	Rep 94%	Rep 99%	Rep	Us
2022 IL Governor	Dem 96%	Dem 98%	Dem	Us
2022 KS Governor	Dem 52%	Dem 73%	Dem	Us
2022 MI Governor	Dem 75%	Dem 81%	Dem	Us
2022 MN Governor	Dem 91%	Dem 93%	Dem	Us
2022 NM Governor	Dem 84%	Dem 87%	Dem	Us
2022 NV Governor	Rep 81%	Rep 69%	Rep	Them
2022 NY Governor	Dem 78%	Dem 92%	Dem	Us
2022 OR Governor	Dem 69%	Rep 52%	Dem	Them
2022 PA Governor	Dem 88%	Dem 96%	Dem	Us
2022 WI Governor	Rep 70%	Rep 57%	Dem	Us
2022 AZ Senate	Rep 51%	Dem 65%	Dem	Us
2022 FL Senate	Rep 97%	Rep 99%	Rep	Us
2022 GA Senate	Rep 63%	Dem 52%	Dem	Us
2022 IA Senate	Rep 97%	Rep 100%	Rep	Us
2022 MO Senate	Rep 98%	Rep 100%	Rep	Tie
2022 NC Senate	Rep 91%	Rep 92%	Rep	Us
2022 NH Senate	Dem 63%	Dem 77%	Dem	Us
2022 NV Senate	Rep 64%	Rep 60%	Dem	Us
2022 OH Senate	Rep 91%	Rep 94%	Rep	Us
2022 PA Senate	Rep 61%	Rep 51%	Dem	Us
2022 WI Senate	Rep 87%	Rep 93%	Rep	Us
2020 AK President	Rep 89%	Rep 100%	Rep	Us
2020 AZ President	Dem 51%	Dem 55%	Dem	Us
2020 CA President	Dem 92%	Dem 100%	Dem	Us
2020 CO President	Dem 90%	Dem 99%	Dem	Us
2020 FL President	Rep 58%	Rep 58%	Rep	Them
2020 GA President	Rep 60%	Rep 67%	Dem	Them
2020 HI President	Dem 93%	Dem 100%	Dem	Us
2020 IA President	Rep 75%	Rep 78%	Rep	Us
2020 IL President	Dem 92%	Dem 100%	Dem	Us
2020 IN President	Rep 95%	Rep 100%	Rep	Us
2020 KS President	Rep 96%	Rep 100%	Rep	Us
2020 ME President	Dem 85%	Dem 99%	Dem	Us
2020 MI President	Dem 68%	Dem 93%	Dem	Us
2020 MN President	Dem 74%	Dem 96%	Dem	Us
2020 MO President	Rep 94%	Rep 100%	Rep	Us
2020 MT President	Rep 86%	Rep 100%	Rep	Us
2020 NC President	Rep 55%	Rep 50%	Rep	Them
2020 NH President	Dem 72%	Dem 99%	Dem	Us
2020 NJ President	Dem 91%	Dem 100%	Dem	Us
2020 NM President	Dem 87%	Dem 99%	Dem	Us
2020 NV President	Dem 72%	Dem 63%	Dem	Them
2020 NY President	Dem 92%	Dem 100%	Dem	Us
2020 OH President	Rep 71%	Rep 85%	Rep	Us
2020 OR President	Dem 91%	Dem 100%	Dem	Us
2020 PA President	Dem 57%	Dem 71%	Dem	Us
2020 SC President	Rep 93%	Rep 100%	Rep	Us
2020 TX President	Rep 71%	Rep 87%	Rep	Us
2020 VA President	Dem 87%	Dem 99%	Dem	Us
2020 WA President	Dem 92%	Dem 100%	Dem	Us
2020 WI President	Dem 67%	Dem 91%	Dem	Us
2020 AK Senate	Rep 80%	Rep 94%	Rep	Us
2020 AL Senate	Rep 95%	Rep 99%	Rep	Us
2020 AZ Senate	Dem 76%	Dem 81%	Dem	Us
2020 CO Senate	Dem 89%	Dem 91%	Dem	Us
2020 IA Senate	Rep 63%	Rep 77%	Rep	Us
2020 KS Senate	Rep 85%	Rep 93%	Rep	Us
2020 KY Senate	Rep 92%	Rep 100%	Rep	Us
2020 ME Senate	Dem 68%	Rep 58%	Rep	Us
2020 MI Senate	Dem 68%	Dem 98%	Dem	Us
2020 MN Senate	Dem 77%	Dem 99%	Dem	Us
2020 MT Senate	Rep 64%	Rep 95%	Rep	Us
2020 NC Senate	Dem 58%	Dem 53%	Rep	Us
2020 SC Senate	Rep 76%	Rep 96%	Rep	Us
2020 TX Senate	Rep 84%	Rep 98%	Rep	Us
2018 FL Governor	Dem 65%	Dem 77%	Rep	Them
2018 AZ Senate	Rep 55%	Dem 65%	Dem	Us
2018 FL Senate	Dem 60%	Dem 86%	Rep	Them
2018 IN Senate	Even	Dem 67%	Rep	Them
2018 MA Senate	Dem 97%	Dem 100%	Dem	Us
2018 MI Senate	Dem 82%	Dem 100%	Dem	Us
2018 MO Senate	Rep 63%	Dem 59%	Rep	Them
2018 MT Senate	Dem 64%	Dem 84%	Dem	Us
2018 NJ Senate	Dem 81%	Dem 100%	Dem	Us
2018 NV Senate	Dem 63%	Rep 57%	Dem	Them
2018 OH Senate	Dem 91%	Dem 99%	Dem	Us
2018 TN Senate	Rep 81%	Rep 92%	Rep	Us
2018 TX Senate	Rep 78%	Rep 96%	Rep	Us
2018 WV Senate	Dem 77%	Dem 86%	Dem	Us
2016 FL Senate	Rep 85%	Rep 96%	Rep	Us
2016 IN Senate	Rep 68%	Rep 85%	Rep	Us

By office

Office	Races	Brier	Called right
Governor	14	0.153	79%
President	30	0.066	97%
Senate	40	0.118	80%

By cycle

Year	Races	Brier	Called right
2016	2	0.062	100%
2018	14	0.140	79%
2020	44	0.078	93%
2022	24	0.139	75%